6 Graphics Explain South America’s Forest Fires shannon.paton@… Thu, 09/19/2024 - 14:32

South America is ablaze, with record-breaking fires burning even in typically moist ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest. High temperatures and persistent drought fueled by the El Niño event that ended earlier this year — as well as longer-term changes driven by deforestation and climate change — have caused fires to spread across millions of hectares and several countries, threatening lives and property and creating dangerous levels of air pollution in cities like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Data on WRI’s Global Forest Watch platform shows that the number of fire alerts in the Amazon region are 79% higher than average for this time of year.

And while this year’s record-breaking fires are concerning, they’re also part of a worrying long-term trend. Analyzing data from 2001-2023, fires in the Amazon region are now burning at least twice as much forest today as they did 20 years ago.

A very strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 caused a large spike in fire-related loss in the Amazon. Similarly, a strong El Niño event began in 2023 and ended in May 2024. This graphic only reflects data through the end of 2023.

Here, we look at the current situation and long-term trends in a few key South American countries, using fire data available on Global Forest Watch.

Bolivia

Bolivia is experiencing its worst fire season in over 20 years, prompting the government to declare a national emergency. Our data shows over 29,000 fire alerts in the country from the beginning of the year through Sept. 16, 2024, with 90% of them occurring since July 1st. Roughly 70% of the alerts are in primary forests, valuable ecosystems that maintain biodiversity, support livelihoods, and store and sequester carbon.

While 2024 is a record-breaking year for fires in Bolivia, forest fires are a worsening trend in the country: Data shows that fires are burning roughly 5 times as much forest today as they did 20 years ago.

Brazil

Brazil, which contains about 60% of the Amazon rainforest, has seen more than 47,000 fire alerts so far this year — more than double the annual average for this time of year. Like Bolivia, almost all the fire alerts occurred in the last few months, many of them in Amazon.

Data from Mapbiomas, a Brazilian NGO, reports that fires have burned across more than 11 million hectares of land between January and August this year, an area roughly the size of Guatemala. According to their data, which stretches back to 1985, only one year — 1987 — had more burned area at this point in the year.

Increasing wildfire activity, along with high levels of deforestation, have already turned forests of the Brazilian Amazon into a net carbon source.

Peru

Peru, which houses the second-largest area of Amazon rainforest in South America after Brazil, has seen more than 450 fire alerts so far in 2024 — more than double the average at this stage of the year. About 61% of the country’s fires are burning in primary forests.

Fighting Fires in a Warmer World

Fires like the ones we’re seeing today are part of a dangerous and largely human-driven feedback loop.

Unlike boreal forests, where fires are a natural part of the ecosystem, fires in humid tropical forests like the Amazon are very rare and almost entirely human-caused. Many of the fires in the Amazon are caused by deforestation, which often involves setting fires to clear land for ranches and farms.

Evidence suggests that deforestation itself is responsible for regional changes in weather patterns that have resulted in larger and more severe droughts that make forests more susceptible to fire. When conditions are hot and dry, as they are this year, fires can quickly spread out of control and burn large areas of forest.

Beyond these direct causes, climate change is also making forests more susceptible to fire by increasing temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns on a global scale. The 10 warmest years since 1985 occurred in the last decade, and 2024 is on track to surpass 2023 as the warmest year yet.

And as forests burn, they release large amounts of carbon dioxide and other pollutants into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change and impacting air quality thousands of miles away. As forests regrow, they will recover some of the lost carbon, but it can take decades to recover what was lost in a single year.

As South American countries confront this year’s record-breaking fires and those to come, the focus must be on addressing both the direct and indirect drivers of forest fires.

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• Global Forest Watch

Authors James MacCarthy Sarah Parsons

Amidst Record-breaking Fires, Will Brazil Confront Its Climate Challenges? shannon.paton@… Thu, 09/19/2024 - 09:29

Brazilians are currently living in a dystopian landscape.

Thick smoke, oppressive heat and eerily orange sunsets blanket both major cities and small villages. Hundreds of cities are exposed to dangerous levels of air pollution while thousands of hectares of forest burn. The jarring images send out a clear distress signal: Something is fundamentally amiss. 

Everybody familiar with the scientific literature understands that climate change is accelerating, manifesting as heatwaves, severe droughts, more frequent floods and devastating fires, leading to urban calamities, biodiversity loss, economic impacts and health hazards. But this spate of fires is truly exceptional. Preliminary analyses by WRI’s Global Forest Watch initiative, which monitors tree cover loss in near-real time through satellite images, show that the current fires season in Brazil is the worst in at least a decade, with more than 47,000 high-confidence fire alerts from the beginning of the year through Sept. 16, 2024. MapBiomas data shows an 85% increase in area affected by fires, compared to the average since 2019.

Conversely, the country is also experiencing bouts of more intense rainfall, with the recent floods in Rio Grande do Sul serving as a distressing example of this trend.  

Persistent heat and shifting rainfall patterns, turbocharged by climate change, are normalizing what once were record-breaking fires, floods and landslides in Brazil. The question now is: Will they prompt action? 

Brazil Engulfed in Flames

According to Carlos Nobre, a renowned climatologist and leading scientist in Brazil, we are living in a scenario of dread. The nation is currently witnessing the cumulative effects of accelerated climate change, rampant arson and the persistence of an agricultural development model. Unlike other countries, where fires are a natural part of the forest ecosystem, almost all fires in the Amazon and Pantanal regions of Brazil are human-caused. Amid weak regulatory oversight, some rural producers persist in using deforestation and fire to clear land for farms and ranches. 

That, plus the hot and dry conditions caused by climate change, are causing fires to rage out of control.

Brazil is currently enduring its longest drought in 70 years, impacting at least 1,400 cities and over 80% of Brazil’s territory . The situation is starkly highlighted by the Madeira River, a major tributary of the Amazon River, which has recorded a water level of just 41 centimeters at the station in Porto Velho, Rondônia — the lowest since 1967, per the Geological Survey of Brazil.

More than 5,000 fires were reported in a single day. The largest city in South America, São Paulo, registered the worst air quality in the world. Brasilia has seen hundreds of people hospitalized with respiratory problems. And since smoke knows no borders, the fires in Brazil have precipitated cross-border environmental issues, affecting neighboring countries like Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia. Each of these nations is grappling with their own fire outbreaks.

Agribusiness is also suffering. In the state of São Paulo, fire-related damages to the sector are estimated at R$2 billion ($366 million), as reported by the Department of Agriculture and Supply.

And these most recent fires come on top of longer-term environmental threats facing all of Brazil’s major ecosystems. The Cerrado tropical savanna, pressured by agricultural production, is witnessing threats to its biodiversity and the water quality of eight of the 12 major Brazilian river basins that traverse the region. The Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland and largest flooded grasslands, faces dangerously low water levels and potentially the worst drought in its history. Meanwhile, the Amazon, vital for regulating the country’s rainfall, is at risk of irreversible collapse by 2050, according to a recent study published in Nature. This is despite a significant reduction in deforestation rates in the last year. 

Brazil Shows Mixed Signals on Environmental Leadership

As Brazil prepares to host the UN Climate Conference (COP 30) in Belém, Pará at the end of 2025, the nation is positioning itself to be a front-runner on the global environmental stage. However, the widespread wildfires cloud the political and diplomatic aspirations of President Lula, who faces scrutiny over the alignment between his rhetoric and his practical agenda for climate action.

This federal administration has made noticeable progress compared to the era of former President Jair Bolsonaro, marked by a significant shift in narrative — from climate denialism to a discourse that values scientific input — and an increase in funding. A prime example is an annual R$63.5 million devoted to fire control and prevention, a 26.2% increase compared to 2022, the last year of Bolsonaro’s term.

Nonetheless, the country has recently sent mixed signals in how it will approach climate and environmental action.

For example, while the federal government recently announced the formation of the Autoridade Climática, or National Climate Authority, the move comes more than a year after the initiative was promised, and its remit remains unclear. Some environmental advocates believe the government should strengthen existing agencies such as the Brazilian Institute of Space Research (INPE), the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA), and the Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation (ICMBio), suggesting that enhancing their infrastructure and budgets would more effectively meet current environmental challenges.

Amidst severe drought, heat and rampant forest fires, President Lula led his ministers to the most affected areas, demanding decisive action. Yet the government has delayed its timeline for releasing a Supreme Court-mandated plan to prevent and combat fires in the Pantanal and Amazon. Although the court’s order was issued in March, it wasn’t until August that Brazil’s Federal Attorney General’s Office sought an extension to finalize this plan. 

Another move that’s drawn criticism is the plan to expand oil exploration in Brazil, particularly along the equatorial margin, located only 500 kilometers from the mouth of the Amazon River. This comes at a time when there is a pressing need for decarbonization policies. Similarly, a plan to pave a segment of the BR-319 highway through the heart of the Amazon, connecting Manaus to Porto Velho, is raising alarms. This development could potentially trigger a surge in deforestation and, as a result, an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, running counter to the government’s stated objective of assuming a global leadership role in addressing the climate crisis.

State and municipal governments in Brazil have also faced criticism. Recently, they have been navigating a precarious balance between unfulfilled promises and reactive measures. The challenge of coordinating and implementing enduring public policies to combat climate change has become more pronounced over the past decade, exacerbated by increasing political polarization and the persistence of traditional agendas in the National Congress. These agendas favor economic systems that are reluctant to adapt to a low-carbon economy and a world urgently requiring a just and rapid transition.

A constructive approach to political coordination in Brazil could involve establishing a comprehensive climate information and data system that integrates federal and subnational networks. Legal safeguards could also be implemented to protect climate services from budgetary reallocations in the Federal Budget Guidelines Act.

Balancing Development with Decarbonization

The task of harmonizing decarbonization with economic development is paramount and increasingly spotlighted in global economic forums, including this year’s G20 summit hosted by Brazil and the upcoming UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. Brazil has an opportunity to show the world what a low-carbon development model can look like — but only if it takes strong climate action both domestically and internationally.

Brazil is currently developing its new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which delineates its greenhouse gas emissions-reduction targets. Brazil has the opportunity to become a global leader by adopting ambitious emissions-reduction targets for 2030 and 2035 that would keep it on track for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. But the country must ensure its actions consistently reflect its environmental rhetoric to truly advance towards this new paradigm. Recent weeks have shown a lag in timely and effective measures to address the forest fires and climate crises, highlighting a gap between policy and practice. 
  
Moreover, it is crucial for Brazil to incorporate adaptation as a fundamental aspect of its economic and social development strategies to enhance national resilience against the impacts of climate change. Effective multi-level governance is essential to respond to escalating challenges, alongside a commitment to funding these initiatives.

In a world that increasingly appears out of balance, now is the opportune moment for Brazil to seek consensus and hasten its efforts to adapt to this new era of extremes.

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Cities Will Suffer Health and Infrastructure Crisis Under 3° C vs. 1.5° C Warming, With Low-income Cities Worst Impacted casey.skeens@wri.org Thu, 09/19/2024 - 05:01

With over two-thirds of the world’s population expected to live in cities by 2050, new global data on the 1,000 largest cities provides a granular view into potential climate futures — highlighting growing hazards and the urgent need for climate adaptation investment

WASHINGTON (September 19, 2024) — Under the world’s current trajectory of 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) of warming from pre-industrial averages, cities across the globe may endure far more frequent and longer heat waves, skyrocketing demand for cooling, and more widespread disease risk, compared to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), according to new analysis from World Resources Institute’s (WRI) Ross Center for Sustainable Cities. Low-income cities and cities in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia are likely to be hardest hit.

WRI analyzed climate hazards for 996 of the world’s largest cities — home to 2.1 billion people (26% of the global population) — using estimates based on downscaled global climate models. The modeling and analysis show a sizable difference between 1.5 degrees C and 3 degrees C for urban areas, underscoring the need for city and national governments to inform their investments and policies with city-level data. This new statistical modeling method can make it easier to predict city-scale impacts from global data and points to the urgency for even more granular modeling work to enable cities to prepare for the worst effects of climate change and rally to reduce emissions faster. This work was supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies.

“The difference between 1.5 degrees C and 3 degrees C has life or death consequences for billions of people worldwide,” said Rogier van den Berg, Global Director, WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities. “This data should serve as a wakeup call to every city and national government leader: now is the time to start preparing cities for a much hotter world, while doing everything we can to slash emissions.”  

At 3 degrees C, most cities can expect both longer and more frequent heat waves compared to 1.5 degrees C, with impacts on public health, labor capacity and productivity. In a 1.5 degrees C world, the longest heat wave each year may last an average of 16.3 days, with 3% of the world’s largest cities experiencing heat waves lasting one month or longer annually. However, under 3 degrees C of warming, the average duration of the longest heat wave could jump to 24.5 days, with more than 16% of cities — home to 302 million people today — exposed to at least one heat wave lasting a month or longer every year.  

Heat waves may also become more frequent. At 1.5 degrees C of temperature rise, the average city may experience 4.9 heat waves per year. At 3 degrees C of warming, the number rises to 6.4 heat waves per year, with an increasing number of cities facing heat waves in the double digits.  

Grappling with extreme heat will significantly raise the demand for cooling — and consequently, for energy. At 1.5 degrees C, about 8.7 million people across a handful of cities could face a 100% increase in their cooling demand (compared to 1995-2014 averages). With 3 degrees C of warming, that number rises to 194 million people in cities potentially seeing their cooling demand double from historic levels. That has huge implications for energy infrastructure and access.

In terms of the spread of disease, higher temperatures create more optimal environments for mosquitos that carry arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, West Nile, yellow fever and chikungunya in new places. Comparing 1.5 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming, the world’s largest cities could see on average 6 more days of peak arbovirus-transmission days every year. But results vary considerably by location. Brazil is already experiencing a dengue crisis, and at 3 degrees C of warming, 11 of its largest cities could see high arbovirus risk for at least six months of the year.  

For malaria, the rise in global temperatures from 1.5 degrees C to 3 degrees C may reduce the number of peak malaria days globally from an average of 114 to 104.4 days in cities, as temperatures become warmer than what is optimal for malaria-transmitting mosquitos. But cities in more temperate regions like Europe and North America could also see their malaria risks increase.  

These findings bear immense consequences for people’s lives, cities’ economies, and infrastructure and public health systems. This is especially important as cities are home to more than half the world’s population — 4.4 billion people — and are expected to grow rapidly over the next two decades. By 2050, two-thirds of the global population will live in cities, with another 2.5 billion people moving to urban areas. Over 90% of urban growth will be in lower-income countries in Africa and Asia.

“Climate change has profoundly unequal impacts both across cities and within cities,” said Anjali Mahendra, Director of Global Research, WRI Ross Center. “Cities in low-income countries are often more afflicted and have fewer resources to cope, which means we need to drastically increase financing for adaptation and find ways to direct it to the hardest hit cities and communities. Even within a well-resourced city, the most vulnerable populations will be disproportionately affected."  

Sub-Saharan African cities may endure multiple severe climate impacts, potentially simultaneously. Comparing impacts at 1.5 degrees C vs. 3 degrees C of warming, the region ranks first on average for the largest estimated increase in heat wave frequency (up 56%, to 6.5 occurrences per year) and peak arbovirus days (25 additional days, totaling 129 annually). It also sees the third largest estimated increase in duration of heat waves (up 58%, to 20 days) and the second biggest estimated increase in energy demand for cooling (an additional 208 cooling degree days).  

Latin American cities rank second on average for the greatest estimated increase in heat wave frequency (up 48%, to 7.5 occurrences annually) and have the second-highest estimated increase in the number of days optimal for arboviruses at 3 degrees C (13 additional days, to 91 days annually) compared to 1.5 degrees C.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesian cities face some of the highest compounding risks from both hotter temperatures and greater disease. Three of the four cities in the world with the greatest estimated increase in peak arbovirus days from 1.5 degrees C to 3 degrees C of warming are in Indonesia: Yogyakarta (273 day increase), Jember (151 day increase) and Padang (148 day increase).

“Better data is the key to sound decision-making, especially during this era of accelerating climate impacts and urgent need for make-or-break action,” said Eric Mackres, Senior Manager, Data and Tools, WRI Ross Center. “It is our hope that city leaders will use these hazard projections to inform decisions and investments that will protect residents against the climate impacts they will face if we fail to change our current emissions path.”

The new research builds on analysis released at the COP28 Local Climate Action Summit, hosted by Bloomberg Philanthropies and the COP28 Presidency with support from WRI. The Summit marked a historic moment to formally recognize the pivotal role city and other local leaders play in climate action. The Summit produced the Coalition for High Ambition Multi-level Partnerships, an initiative endorsed by over 70 national governments to drive a new approach to updating Nationally Determined Contributions by harvesting the best ideas for climate action from the local level, with the goal of ensuring the next round of national climate targets are as ambitious and inclusive as possible.

"This research makes it clear that we can't afford to delay action on climate change any longer as dire consequences await cities in a 3 degrees C world," said Antha Williams, who leads the Bloomberg Philanthropies' Environment program. "For over a decade, we've helped support mayors' forward thinking and bold leadership in the fight against climate change. Now it's more important than ever for national and local governments to come together to accelerate progress and protect the millions of lives in urban communities from the threatening impacts of climate change."

National and local governments must work urgently to improve collaboration, increase financing for adaptation, double down on policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and use a data-driven approach to prioritize the most likely and urgent risks.

About World Resources Institute    
WRI is a trusted partner for change. Using research-based approaches, we work globally and in focus countries to meet people’s essential needs; to protect and restore nature; and to stabilize the climate and build resilient communities. We aim to fundamentally transform the way the world produces and uses food and energy and designs its cities to create a better future for all. Founded in 1982, WRI has nearly 2,000 staff around the world, with country offices in Brazil, China, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the United States and regional offices in Africa and Europe. Learn more at WRI.org and on X @WorldResources.

About WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities

WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities is World Resources Institute’s program dedicated to shaping a future where cities work better for everyone. It enables more connected, compact and coordinated cities. The Center expands the transport and urban development expertise of the EMBARQ network to catalyze innovative solutions in other sectors, including air quality, water, buildings, land use and energy. It combines the research excellence of WRI with two decades of on-the-ground impact through a network of more than 370 experts working from Brazil, China, Colombia, Ethiopia, India, Mexico, Turkey and the United States to make cities around the world better places to live. More information at www.wrirosscities.org.  

About Bloomberg Philanthropies

Bloomberg Philanthropies invests in 700 cities and 150 countries around the world to ensure better, longer lives for the greatest number of people. The organization focuses on creating lasting change in five key areas: the Arts, Education, Environment, Government Innovation, and Public Health. Bloomberg Philanthropies encompasses all of Michael R. Bloomberg’s giving, including his foundation, corporate, and personal philanthropy as well as Bloomberg Associates, a philanthropic consultancy that advises cities around the world. In 2023, Bloomberg Philanthropies distributed $3 billion. For more information, please visit bloomberg.org, sign up for our 
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What Would Cities Look Like With 3 Degrees C of Warming vs. 1.5? Far More Hazardous and Vastly Unequal shannon.paton@… Tue, 09/17/2024 - 16:30 .category-wrapper.topic-tag-wrapper.regions { display: none !important; }

The world recently experienced a 13-month streak of record-breaking global temperatures. And as blistering heat waves punish communities across several continents, 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record. Global average temperatures are now perilously close to exceeding 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels, a threshold scientists warn will bring increasingly dangerous droughts, wildfires and other impacts of climate change. Researchers project nearly 3 degrees C (5.4 degrees F) of temperature rise by 2100 without significant action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

That means almost 600 million people will be exposed to flooding from rising seas, food production will drop by as much as half and  habitats will suffer disastrous levels of loss. But what will 3 degrees C of warming vs. 1.5 degrees C look like in specific places — like Bengaluru, Johannesburg, Rio de Janeiro or the city you live in?

New data from WRI  finds that in most cities, the difference between 3 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C of warming is sizable. We analyzed potential climate hazards for nearly 1,000 of the world’s largest cities1 — currently home to 2.1 billion people, or 26% of the global population — using estimates based on downscaled global climate models. At 3 degrees C of warming, many cities could face month-long heat waves, skyrocketing energy demand for air conditioning, as well as a shifting risk for insect-borne diseases — sometimes simultaneously. People in low-income cities are likely to be the hardest hit.

These findings hold immense consequences for people’s lives and livelihoods, as well as for cities’ economies, infrastructure and public health systems. The implications are especially important as cities are home to 4.4 billion people globally — more than half the world’s population — and will grow rapidly over the next two decades. By 2050, as another 2.5 billion people move to urban areas, two-thirds of humanity will live in cities, with over 90% of that growth in Africa and Asia.

 

About this data

Global climate models often don’t produce data granular enough to be usable at a local level. For this article, we produced a global data set that includes data on 14 heat- and precipitation-related climate hazards for the 996 cities with populations greater than 500,000 people using a new statistical modeling method (designed by WRI) that makes it easier to project city-scale impacts from global climate models.

[Read more]

Global climate models often don’t produce data granular enough to be usable at a local level. For this article, we produced a global data set that includes data on 14 heat- and precipitation-related climate hazards for the 996 cities with populations greater than 500,000 people using a new statistical modeling method (designed by WRI) that makes it easier to project city-scale impacts from global climate models.

In consultation with city-level decision-makers from cities we work with, we chose these hazards for their relevance to public health, livelihoods, infrastructure and economic productivity. Average hazard magnitudes were calculated based on three climate models for each city (chosen based on best fit with historical data) for three global warming scenarios (1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C), plus a recent historical reference period (1995-2014). For the sake of brevity, in this article we describe findings for the 1.5 and 3 degree C scenarios from only some of the hazard indicators, and we only report estimates from the best of the three models per city (based on historical correlation). Data from all three models are in the accompanying dataset.

Our data are all based on models. And like all models, there are limitations and unavoidable uncertainty. Here are some of the important limitations to our data:

Inherent uncertainty in climate models. Climate models are built on the research community’s most current understanding of how the climate works and will evolve, but they are far from perfect. The complexity of Earth’s systems and our inability to predict important factors like future greenhouse gas emissions mean that all climate models contain unavoidable uncertainty. The data we provide are estimates based on probability models, not definitive predictions. The full dataset includes estimates and uncertainty measures for three independent climate models used for each indicator, for each city.

Spatial resolution. Our data and the models we use have the same spatial resolution: approximately 25 km by 25 km pixels. While an improvement over earlier work, the resolution is still coarser than is ideal for urban climate planning. The estimates we provide are averages over areas more than 600 square kilometers. Therefore, our data likely underestimate extremes that might arise from more granular built environment differences: Very hot locations (locations that are warmer than average within their grid cells) will appear cooler, and cool locations will appear warmer.

Urban heat island effect. Because of pavement, building materials and relative lack of vegetation, cities tend to be warmer than rural areas. This is the urban heat island effect, and although we do include a bias correction step to partially mitigate the problem, the climate models do not account for it. Many locations in cities are therefore likely to be even warmer than is reflected in our data. Estimates of future heat wave frequency and duration and number of extreme-temperature days are likely to be low.

Simplified disease-risk hazards. We based our peak arbovirus and malaria transmission hazards on comparing estimated temperatures with published optimal temperature ranges for particular mosquito species (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for arboviruses, and Anopheles gambiae for malaria). Disease life cycles are of course much more complex than can be captured in simple temperature ranges, and diseases can be transmitted even in suboptimal temperatures and through vectors other than the species we considered. For example, Anopheles stephensi, an Asian mosquito and malaria vector, is a growing threat in Africa, particularly in urban areas. Finally, we note that our estimates examine climate only, and not the present or future geographic distribution of mosquitos or pathogens.

We are constantly refining our methods, and we expect to reduce uncertainty and improve our estimates as we gain access to better climate models. For now, our advice for interpreting these data is to understand the inherent uncertainty in this modeling work and consider our findings as a possible future, based on some of the best existing global models, as uncertain as they may be.

 

 

A young girl carries water through an informal settlement in Johannesburg, South Africa. Photo by Joe Eldrdige/Alamy Stock Photo

Here, we unpack what conditions may look like in the world’s largest cities if global warming reaches 3 degrees C, compared to 1.5 degrees C:

Longer and More Frequent Heatwaves

Study after study show that people die and economies slow down during prolonged periods of abnormally high temperatures. Even when temperatures do not approach life-threatening highs, heat waves can elevate risks to agriculture and infrastructure, such as crop failures and increased energy demand. At 3 degrees C of warming, most cities can expect both longer and more frequent heat waves than at 1.5 degrees C.2

Across the world’s largest cities, the longest heat wave per year in a 1.5 degrees C warmer world could average 16.3 days, with 3% of cities facing a heat wave every year that lasts one month or longer.

However, under the world’s current trajectory of nearly 3 degrees C of warming, the average duration of the longest heat wave in a year may jump to 24.5 days, with more than 16% of the world’s largest cities — home to 302 million people — exposed to at least one heat wave lasting one month or longer every year.3

Duration of annual longest heat wave also varies significantly by region. 

At 1.5 degrees C of warming, the Middle East and North Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean regions may see the longest heat waves on average, lasting an estimated 23-25 days.

At 3 degrees C of warming, the Middle East and North Africa may see the largest estimated jump in duration of annual longest heat wave (+13.6 days), bringing the longest heat waves in the region to 36.3 days, on average.

East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia regions may also see increases of 9-10 days longer, resulting in heat waves lasting 23-25 days.

Heat waves may become more frequent, too.

At 1.5 degrees C of temperature rise, the average city may experience 4.9 heat waves per year.

At 3 degrees C of warming, the number of heat waves may rise to 6.4 per year, with an increasing number of cities facing double-digit heat waves every year.

Cities in countries with different income levels would see different changes.

At 1.5 degrees C of global warming, cities in high-income countries may see an estimated 5.2 heat waves per year, on average, while those in low-income countries may see 4.7 heat waves.

At 3 degrees C of warming, the number of heat waves for cities in high-income countries may rise by 0.7 to an estimated 5.9 heat waves per year.

For cities in low-income countries, heat wave frequency may rise by an estimated 2.1 to 6.9 heat waves per year.

Longer, more frequent heat waves can take a massive toll on public health and social and economic development. The impacts of extreme heat can be life-threatening, especially on vulnerable groups like pregnant women, the elderly or children. And within cities, poorer neighborhoods will feel the effects more sharply, as they often have fewer green areas to cool the air, poorer quality buildings and less access to mechanical cooling.

Combined with air pollution, an all-too-common problem in cities, heat waves become even deadlier. For example, cardiovascular diseases are exacerbated by extreme temperatures and by tropospheric ozone, the formation of which increases at higher temperatures. Heat waves also exacerbate wildfires, which can increase exposure to PM2.5 pollution, a known carcinogen linked to diseases and premature death.

And beyond the impacts on human health, extreme heat can strain water, energy and transport systems, disrupting food chains and agriculture.

City Solution: Inclusive Resilience in Bengaluru, India Photo by shylendrahood/iStock

In Bengaluru, India, where the longest heat wave every year could average 13.5 days at 1.5 degrees C of warming and 37.8 days at 3 degrees C, extreme heat is already bringing severe water shortages and surging energy demand. The city is India’s fifth most populous, and 16% of its rapidly growing population live in informal settlements.

Last year, Bengaluru launched its first climate action plan, which can serve as a model for how large cities with high inequality can build resilience. The plan is inclusive by design, actively recruiting all sectors of society to participate in planning and implementing nature-based climate change solutions, like planting trees and expanding green space.

Bengaluru considers clean air and other components of human well-being in its climate plan. The plan is also broad in reach, targeting sectors like solid waste management, stormwater, greening, energy, transportation and biodiversity.

 

A man repairs air conditioners at an apartment building in Asuncion, Paraguay. As temperatures rise in the world’s cities, energy demands for cooling are projected to skyrocket. Photo by Jose Carlos Alexandre/iStock Rising Demand for Cooling

Longer, more frequent heat waves and extremely hot days will significantly raise the demand for cooling4 in homes and workplaces — and with it, demand for energy if those needs are met through mechanical means like air conditioning. Many cooling needs can be effectively met through passive cooling — including material selection, shade, insulation and ventilation — but these solutions are too often ignored in favor of mechanical methods perceived as more convenient.

At 1.5 degrees C of warming, approximately 8.7 million people across a handful of cities could face double their historical (1995-2014) cooling demand.5

At 3 degrees C of warming, approximately 194 million people may see a doubling from their historical levels.

Places that haven't had to consider cooling strategies because of mild climates — like northern Europe or the U.S. Pacific Northwest — will need to do so more.

If met through mechanical means, the uptick in energy use may require a sizable investment in energy infrastructure and building technologies, even if cooling demand is still relatively small. It would also make it harder to achieve decarbonization goals in regions where power relies on fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, many places that are already hot — like Tehran and Marrakech — are increasing their cooling demand faster than relatively cool cities.

For many of these cities, population growth and cooling technology adoption become complicating factors. Energy-intensive air conditioning is less commonly used in lower-income cities, but demand is increasing as these countries get richer and more populous. For example, the percentage of Indian households with air conditioning is expected to match or exceed that of Europe by 2050.

At the same time, without policies and concerted public investment in passive cooling, many poorer people in soon-to-be hotter cities won’t have access to cooling solutions. This could increase social inequity and health risks.

Only about 8% of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest and often poorest parts of the world currently have air conditioning in their homes. For example, in India, over 215 million people in cities are already estimated to be at higher risk of heat-related health problems due to lack of cooling services and infrastructure, including more than 121 million women and girls, who are affected disproportionately by extreme heat both in health and in economic outcomes. There is a massive gap between existing cooling investment and what will be needed by 2050 to save lives, especially in lower-income countries.

City Solution: Mapping Hotspots in Johannesburg, South Africa Photo by Rich T. Photo/Shutterstock

Heat waves in Johannesburg, South Africa, are becoming longer and more frequent. Johannesburg’s demand for cooling at 3 degrees C of warming is estimated to be 69% greater than at 1.5 degrees C. Air conditioning doesn’t work well when high temperatures cause water shortages and power outages, as they did in a recent heat wave that affected most of South Africa. And for many of Johannesburg’s residents who live in informal settlements — approximately 1 in 5 people — water and electricity are unreliable year-round.

The often-deadly combination of high temperatures and high inequality in cities calls for aggressive action from governments and communities. In Johannesburg, this starts with mapping. In 2022, local government officials partnered with community volunteers to measure temperatures and create maps that show the intersection of heat and vulnerability. The effort provided decision-makers with high-quality data, built a compelling evidence base for specific cooling measures, and brought stakeholders throughout the city to the planning table. As the city proceeds with tree plantings, white roofs and other cooling initiatives, its efforts are backed by data collected by residents, improving coverage of the most vulnerable.

 

A man fumigates mosquitos in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Photo by Luiz Souzarj/iStock Growing and Shifting Disease Risks

Warmer conditions often fuel mosquito-borne diseases. Geographic patterns and prevalence of illnesses6 would shift significantly in a 3 degrees C warmer world, requiring major changes in public health priorities and investments. (Our analyses are based on changing temperatures and not on other factors affecting disease lifecycles or on current or future prevalence of disease pathogens and vectors.)

Incidence of arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, West Nile, yellow fever and chikungunya will likely increase worldwide as days with optimal temperatures for disease-carrying mosquitos become more common.

Comparing 1.5 degrees C and 3 degrees C of warming, the average increase in peak arbovirus-transmission days globally is 6 days. But the picture is much more complicated than the global average.

Low-income cities will be particularly hard hit.

At 1.5 degrees C of warming, cities in low-income countries may experience 73.4 peak arbovirus days each year, compared to just 27.9 for cities in high-income countries.

And at 3 degrees C of warming, cities in low-income countries may experience 87.4 peak arbovirus days each year, compared to 32.1 days per year for the average city in high-income countries.

The incidence of malaria, on the other hand, is expected to decrease globally, as temperatures in many places become warmer than what is optimal for malaria-transmitting mosquitos.

An increase in global warming from 1.5 degrees C to 3 degrees C means fewer expected peak malaria days — dropping from 114.0 to 104.4 days on average — but it varies considerably by location. For example, at 3 degrees C, some cities in Europe, Central Asia and North America see the expected number of days with peak-transmission temperatures increase. Most of these cities do not currently harbor malaria-carrying mosquitos — but as occasional reports arise of locally acquired malaria in Europe and the U.S., there is increasing concern that malaria could creep into places that haven’t seen it in living memory.

City Solution: Hunting Dengue in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Photo by Giongi63/Shutterstock

Arboviruses are of particularly urgent concern in Latin America. Brazil is already experiencing a dengue crisis, and at 3 degrees C of warming, 11 of its largest cities could see high arbovirus risk for at least six months of the year. Rio de Janeiro may see significantly more illness if global warming reaches 3 degrees C, as the expected number of peak arbovirus days increases by 71%, from 69 to 118 days per year.

As temperatures in Rio de Janeiro become more hospitable to dengue-carrying mosquitos, the city is investing in improving the availability of dengue vaccines and controlling the mosquitos themselves. Community health workers crisscross the city, hunting for places where standing water accumulates and mosquitos can breed. And Rio de Janeiro is using another disease — Wolbachia, a bacterium that infects insects — to inhibit dengue transmission in infected mosquitos. Rio de Janeiro and five other Brazilian cities release Wolbachia-infected mosquitos by the tens of thousands. These mosquitos behave no differently from uninfected mosquitos, but they harbor less dengue virus and infect other mosquitos. A similar Wolbachia program in Yogyakarta, Indonesia resulted in a 77% reduction of dengue incidence.

 

Mumbai, India. Low-income cities, in particular, will suffer compounding risks from the interacting effects of above-average increases in temperatures and disease, potentially straining health care systems, infrastructure and budgets that are already insufficient to meet residents’ needs. Photo by Harald Spilker/Alamy Stock Photo Low-income Cities Will Face Compounding Climate Risks

Climate hazards rarely come in isolation. Low-income cities, in particular, will suffer compounding risks from the interacting effects of above-average increases in temperatures and disease, potentially straining health care systems, infrastructure and budgets that are already insufficient to meet residents’ needs.

Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to be the hardest hit region for several indicators at 3 degrees C of global warming. The region’s cities may endure multiple severe climate impacts, potentially simultaneously. Comparing impacts at 1.5 degrees C versus 3 degrees C of warming, the region’s cities rank first on average for the greatest estimated increase in heat wave frequency (up 56%, to 6.5 occurrences per year) and peak arbovirus days (25 additional days, totaling 129 annually). They also see the third-largest estimated increase in the annual longest heat wave duration (up 58%, to 20 days) and the second-biggest estimated increase in energy demand for cooling (an additional 208 cooling degree days).

Although Africa is only responsible for 2%-3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, many of its sub-Saharan cities are most affected by climate change-induced hazards. At 3 degrees C of warming, cities like Freetown, Sierra Leone and Dakar, Senegal could endure heat waves lasting longer than a month, with an average of seven heat waves in a year, demanding greater energy for cooling (13% and 20% above historical reference period averages, respectively). Many cities in the region are already dealing with rapid population growth, conflict and unregulated development. These compounding climate hazards only add to the region’s vulnerability.

Latin American cities rank second on average for the greatest estimated increase in heat wave frequency (up 48%, to 7.5 occurrences annually). The region’s cities have the second-highest estimated increase in the number of days optimal for arboviruses at 3 degrees C (13 additional days, to 91 days annually) compared to 1.5 degrees C.

Cities in Indonesia face some of the highest compounding risks of both hotter temperatures and greater disease. Three of the four cities in the world with the greatest estimated increase in peak arbovirus days from 1.5 degrees C to 3 degrees C of warming are in Indonesia: Yogyakarta (273 day increase), Jember (151 day increase) and Padang (148 day increase).

Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Cities in Indonesia face some of the highest compounding risks of both hotter temperatures and greater disease in a warmer world. Photo by Manfred Gottschalk/Alamy Stock Photo Reaching 3 Degrees C Is Not a Foregone Conclusion

The future under 3 degrees C of warming looks dire, but these data are only an estimate of effects for one pathway. We have a choice about our climate future. The technology already exists; with the right political will, we can mitigate the worst of these effects.

National and local governments must work urgently to make their cities more climate-resilient while slashing emissions. Specific priorities include:

• Double down on policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: Climate problems will only worsen until the world brings greenhouse gas emissions down to net zero. National governments must implement policies aligned with the international Paris Agreement on climate change; cities can set targets and adopt policies to contribute to meeting these goals.
• Increase finance for climate adaptation: Many low-income cities have climate adaptation plans, but implementation lags due to lack of funding. Adaptation needs for low-income countries are $387 billion per year — 10-18 times bigger than current international public adaptation finance flows.
• Invest in resilient infrastructure: Adaptation solutions like cooling infrastructure, early-warning systems and heat action plans protect people’s health and boost cities’ long-term resilience. Nature-based solutions like urban forests and wetlands also do these things while bringing the added benefits of nature to city residents.
• Improve collaboration between cities and national governments, and across city departments: Multi-level partnerships and coordination are key to tackling greenhouse gas emissions and implementing resilience at the scale required to save and improve people’s lives. While in many parts of the world different levels of government tend to operate in silos, using separate strategies, some national governments see the value of cities and support them as climate-solution allies. More than 70 countries committed at the 2023 UN climate summit (COP28) to collaborate with cities on their next national climate plans, due in early 2025, through the CHAMP Initiative. Others should follow.
• Take a data-driven approach: Climate-hazard forecasts for cities can help them focus on the most likely and urgent climate risks while informing targeted investments and policies. City-scale, city-relevant data like ours should be at the center of planning and budgeting for climate adaptation and resilience.

  

The data for all 14 climate hazards, calculated for 996 cities, are available here. For this article, unless noted otherwise, we used the data only from the single best-performing of nine climate models for each location (the model that best matches the historical meteorological record for each city in the time periods where they overlap), but the dataset includes data from the three best-performing models. The data also include standard deviations for our estimates, as well as estimates and standard deviations of probabilities that the hazard magnitude exceed certain thresholds. The methods underlying our estimates of average hazard magnitudes and threshold-exceedance probabilities are detailed in this technical note. The methods we used to model warming scenarios and our definitions of the 14 climate hazards are detailed in this technical note.

The dataset is formatted to be of most use to data analysts equipped with statistical-analysis software. For everyone else, we’ve put together this user-friendly explorer tool.

Download DataDownload Data

 

Endnotes

1 Our cities are based on the definitions, 2015 populations and spatial extents outlined by the GHS Urban Centre Database.

2 There is no universally applied definition of “heat wave.” For this project, we defined it as three or more consecutive days on which the high temperature equals or exceeds the local 90th percentile of daily high temperature, as determined from the ECMWF ERA5 dataset over the 40-year period 1980–2019.

3 Exposure estimates are based on the 2020 populations in the Global Human Settlement Layer’s GHS-POP dataset.

4 We looked at cooling degree days, the annual sum of positive daily average temperature deviations from a threshold temperature, and a commonly used indicator of energy demand for cooling. Specifically, we calculated CDD21, the annual sum of daily positive deviations from 21°C.

5 Exposure estimates are based on the 2020 populations in the Global Human Settlement Layer’s GHS-POP dataset.

6 We used the ranges 22.9 – 27.8°C and 26 – 29°C for malaria- and arbovirus-transmitting mosquitos, respectively. These are estimated to be optimal for mosquito activity, but transmission can occur well outside these ranges. Also, note that many locations have temperatures within the optimal ranges but do not have the mosquitos. Our estimates therefore may overestimate the risk of shifting disease prevalence.

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Why the Next 3 Months Are Critical for People, Nature and Climate shannon.paton@… Tue, 09/17/2024 - 09:56

Decision-makers from nearly every country on the planet will attend a series of high-profile international summits between now and the end of the year. Together, they offer a unique chance to address the biggest challenges facing people, nature and climate.

It all begins with the UN General Assembly and Climate Week in New York City on September 22nd. In October, leaders will convene in Cali, Colombia for the COP16 summit on global biodiversity goals, the same week as the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings on international development finance. Many of these same leaders will also attend the UN climate summit (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan and the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in November.

With these successive and connected convenings, decision-makers have an unprecedented opportunity to finally put the world on track for a livable future.

If we look at the outcomes of past international summits, we might anticipate incremental change at best. But we do not have the luxury of continuing on that path. With the global challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss and rising inequality all heading in the wrong direction — and with dire consequences — piecemeal progress is not enough. Leaders need to not only connect these deeply intertwined issues, but also ensure this season’s summits build on one another to secure the transformative change the world needs.

Global Sustainability Goals Are Far Off Track

Nearly a decade ago in Paris, almost all the countries in the world agreed to keep global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees C. That same year, UN member states unanimously adopted the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, aiming to end poverty, eradicate hunger and tackle other challenges while spurring economic growth. And in 2022, 190 nations committed to 30x30, an agreement to address biodiversity loss by protecting at least 30% of the world’s land and ocean and restoring 30% of its degraded ecosystems by 2030.

These are grand ambitions. But so far, they haven’t translated into enough action. For example, last year’s Global Stocktake revealed the world is far off track from its 1.5-degree C target and headed for a disastrous 2.9 degrees C of warming by the end of this century. The world lost 3.7 million hectares of tropical primary forest in 2023 alone, equivalent to 10 soccer fields per minute!

This year offers the chance to finally bring global goals — and a better future — within reach. At upcoming summits and all the spaces in between them, it’s essential that leaders deliver three big things: more finance; stronger policies; and greater ambition.

Finance: More and Higher-quality Finance for Countries that Need It

Developing countries, which bear the least responsibility for climate change but tend to suffer the greatest impacts, will need roughly $2.4 trillion per year (excluding China) of investment by 2030 to meet global climate and nature goals. Around $1 trillion must come from external sources. Securing this amount of money — a four-fold increase from current levels of investment — will require significant shifts from international, domestic, public and private sources.

This year offers one of the biggest opportunities in decades to do so. It’s critical that wealthier countries step up — both as a moral imperative and economic imperative. Helping developing countries decarbonize and adapt is a prerequisite for avoiding far worse climate impacts and suffering everywhere. There is no path to staying within 1.5 degrees C without this finance. 

COP29 has been dubbed the “Finance COP.” For the first time in 15 years, negotiators will set a new global climate finance goal, replacing the $100 billion wealthy nations provide annually to support low-carbon development in developing nations. It’s essential that they not only significantly raise the amount provided to meet the scale of poorer and more vulnerable nations’ needs, but also improve the quality of climate finance. With 60% of low-income countries in or near debt distress today, developing countries need a higher proportion of grants and concessional finance as opposed to loans.

Given that most of the world’s biodiversity and tropical forests are in developing countries — and that these ecosystems provide global benefits in the form of carbon storage, water provision and other services — wealthier, developed countries have a responsibility to support their protection. Developed countries promised to provide $20 billion in conservation finance by 2025, but they are currently far off track, with an $11.6 billion shortfall. They should come to COP16 prepared to deliver, as well as show how they’re shifting the $500 billion in harmful subsidies driving ecosystem degradation in the first place.

Beyond negotiations at COP29 and COP16, broader discussions on reforming the global financial system and unlocking investment from the private sector will be key to increasing sustainable finance flows from billions to trillions per year. As the world’s wealthiest nations, the G20 can help push through major reforms of the financial sector — including aligning all public and private finance flows with the goals of the Paris Agreement and Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and identifying ways to tackle debt relief and restructuring. Meanwhile, the World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings in October are a prime opportunity to increase multilateral development banks’ capital and ensure finance can flow to the nations and sectors that need it most. More and better finance is essential for delivering not only greater ambition, but existing nature and climate targets.

Policy: Laying Out an Integrated Development Pathway for Countries

Global targets generate momentum, but they’re only made real by action domestically. That’s why stronger national policies are essential for seizing opportunities for people, nature and climate. 

National leaders can start by using this year’s gatherings to demonstrate real progress against their collective commitments. In recent years, countries have made collective pledges to transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy, slash methane, shift to sustainable food systems and fully halt deforestation by 2030. By showing concrete signs of enacting these changes within their countries, national leaders can inspire others to make good on their own promises while ramping up ambition.

Finally, goals for nature, climate and people are deeply interconnected, yet policymaking has historically been siloed. Climate and nature policies will only be politically feasible if they are good for people and economies. Creating jobs, improving health, reducing costs and ensuring a “just transition” must be central to countries’ nature and climate strategies. To deliver these changes, policymakers need to take a whole-of-government approach to nature and climate goals, integrating them into agricultural, industrial, economic and other policies.

The G20 can advance this issue by creating a framework for countries to produce integrated economic development roadmaps that embed climate and nature. Done right, these roadmaps can then help countries attract more finance by laying out specific policies and plans.

Ambition: Higher Targets for Climate, Nature and People 

At the same time, leaders need to set their sights higher.

To be sure, the world is already awash in commitments — and following through on them is imperative. If countries fulfill their existing climate plans, research shows the world is on a trajectory for up to 2.9 degrees C of warming by the end of the century. This is far better than the projected 4 degrees C if countries fail to fulfill their existing climate plans, but insufficient for ensuring a safe future. The months ahead are a pivotal phase for countries to set stronger targets that can safeguard nature, stabilize the climate and ensure people can thrive. 

By COP16, all countries must submit National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) detailing how they will meet the collective Global Biodiversity Framework goals, including for 30x30. Yet so far, only a handful have done so. Countries should come forward with targets and plans that are both bold and pragmatic, showing which areas they’ll prioritize for protection and restoration, how they’ll transform food systems (a top driver of biodiversity loss), and how they’ll support Indigenous Peoples and frontline communities’ rights.

Countries are required as part of the Paris Agreement to submit new national climate targets and action plans (NDCs) every five years, with the next set due by February 2025. At Climate Week, COP29 and other moments this year, countries should share their intentions of making their next round of NDCs much stronger than the last. More stringent emissions cuts from G20 countries, responsible for over 75% of the globe’s greenhouse gases, will be especially important for garnering global momentum and inspiring more ambitious NDCs from all countries.

It's important for leaders to recognize that biodiversity loss and climate change are deeply interconnected crises; strong NBSAPs have the ability to lead to stronger NDCs, and vice-versa. Countries should integrate targets from both their NDCs and NBSAPs into their national policies, plans and finance related to food systems, forests and water security, as these three interconnected areas are so critical to countries’ climate, biodiversity and development goals.

Creating a Positive Feedback Loop for Success

Each of this year’s international summits are connected to each other; decisions made at one event affect discussions and outcomes at others. Countries that set ambitious national climate and biodiversity goals, integrate these into new economic development pathways and back them with policies and domestic finance can attract private and international finance at scale —  and address the nature and climate and human crises simultaneously. Reaching a strong global climate finance goal, for example, can give developing countries the confidence to submit strong NDCs in 2025. Meanwhile, the World Bank/IMF meetings and G20 summit are critical to drive progress on international financial reforms and ensure a successful and just global transition. 

The next few months will help determine whether the world continues to settle for unmet goals and incremental progress — or if we will deliver the change needed to build a global economy that is good for people, nature and climate.  

tree-planting-ethiopia.jpg Climate Climate COP29 COP16 Type Commentary Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Authors Ani Dasgupta

Which Countries Should Pay for International Climate Finance? wil.thomas@wri.org Tue, 09/17/2024 - 00:46

The world needs trillions of dollars annually to combat climate change, but questions remain as to where that funding will come from. Most at stake are poorer countries that are the least protected — and hardest hit — from the increasing ravages of heat waves, storm surges and other extreme weather events exacerbated each year by climate change. Many of these countries lack the resources to undertake a rapid and just transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy without external help.

Through the UN Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) and  the Paris Agreement, countries have made several finance-related commitments, including a new fund for responding to loss and damage to help developing countries recover from extreme climate events. This year, countries are scheduled to set a new finance target aimed at bringing much-needed funds to developing countries. Known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), it will replace the $100 billion target developed countries pledged to mobilize annually for developing nations until 2025.

These negotiations have led to a variety of questions, including which countries should help pay. Answering this question involves a number of considerations, including legal interpretations of the Paris Agreement and discussions of justice and fairness. To date, a list of the 23 mostly high-income countries, known as Annex II of the Convention, have been jointly responsible for making financial contributions that enable developing countries to achieve low-emission development and greater climate resilience. This list includes countries like the United States, Japan and Germany.

Now, developed countries are pushing for additional nations to also contribute, specifically nations that today have relatively high levels of wealth and emissions. Meanwhile, developing countries generally say that there is no legal mandate to discuss who should contribute to the new goal, arguing that the Paris Agreement states that the responsibility falls solely on developed nations.

Analyzing Countries’ Climate Finance Responsibilities

Negotiating responsibility for climate finance is not new in the UN climate talks. Financial responsibility has generally been explained through a combination of historic responsibility — measured by emissions levels — and the capacity to pay — measured by levels of economic development. Developed nations, understood as Annex II countries, have typically been high on both these fronts.

However, in the 30-plus years since the countries were identified in Annex II, the world’s per capita income has tripled, reflecting not just nominal, but real gains in living standards. Some non-Annex II countries now have wealth and emissions that are higher than some Annex II nations. Whether this new reality should alter the list of contributing nations will be a hotly contested element of the new climate finance goal negotiations at the upcoming UN climate change summit (COP29) in Azerbaijan this November.

To help contribute to informed discussions on where countries stand in terms of their historic responsibility and capacity to pay, WRI has created a climate finance calculator that generates scenarios based on a country’s historical emissions and their income level. Evaluating different scenarios highlights the nuances needed to consider the level of responsibility for different countries.

For the best user experience, access the Climate Finance Calculator using a desktop computer.

solar-panels-nigeria.jpg Finance Type Finding Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Authors Chris Qihan Zou Natalia Alayza Hayden Higgins Gaia Larsen

One County in Rural Kenya Is Using Clean Energy to Close its Electricity Gap shannon.paton@… Fri, 09/13/2024 - 08:18

Makueni County Referral Hospital is the biggest health facility in its area of rural Kenya, treating approximately 500 patients a day in a region where modern infrastructure can be hard to come by. But its operations are costly. The local government spends about Ksh. 24 million ($187,000) each year on the facility’s electricity bills alone — money that could otherwise help expand healthcare or provide other benefits.

But there is good news for the people of Makueni: The county government installed a new solar PV system at the facility that will generate 288 MWh annually, enough to meet 30-33% of the hospital’s electricity needs. In addition to saving the county government up to Ksh 7 million ($ 55,000) annually, the system will help provide a consistent, stable and clean power source, including during power outages that have become a common occurrence in the country.

And this isn’t an isolated project. Solar-powered healthcare facilities are just one element of Makueni County’s new Energy Plan launching on Sept. 17, 2024.

Underpinned by geospatial data and analysis, the plan targets several areas where clean energy can not only provide necessary electricity, but also bring social, environmental and economic benefits —things like higher crop yields or larger incomes. It showcases the promise renewable energy holds for rural communities in Kenya and beyond.

Tomato farmers harvest their crop in Makueni County, Kenya. Photo by Jake Lyell/Alamy Stock Photo Boosting Energy Access in Makueni County and Beyond

While Kenya has made significant progress in expanding access to energy in recent years, 12.9 million Kenyans still lacked electricity in 2022, while another 39 million went without clean fuels and cooking technologies. Makueni County is no exception: 250,000 people don’t have any form of electricity.

Even for those with grid connections, electricity prices are rising. National average costs jumped from US$ 0.17 in 2020 to US$ 0.24 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2024 for domestic users, and US$ 0.10 to $0.15 per kWh for commercial consumers during the same period.

A reliable supply of power — and the ability to afford it — bring so much more than electricity. With only 35% of Makueni County’s population connected to the grid and mini-grids, many rural smallholder farmers can’t grow enough crops because electricity is needed to power irrigation, or they lose their produce because there isn’t energy for refrigeration and storage. Schools, hospitals and large businesses must either invest in costly and polluting diesel generators or are forced to interrupt their operations during power cuts.

Kenya’s Energy Act 2019 mandates energy planning to the county-level, recognizing the importance of locally led solutions and policies. Yet so far, only six counties (including Makueni) have developed energy plans; 11 are in the process and the remaining 30 haven’t started. Part of the problem is capacity constraints, insufficient funding to facilitate development of the plans, and lack of reliable data and open source analytical tools.

Makueni County’s Energy Plan Sets Its Sights on Clean Energy

That’s where Makueni County differs from its peers. To support development of the Makueni County Energy Plan (CEP), WRI and Strathmore University used geospatial technologies and tools like KoBo Collect to gather and analyze primary data; WRI’s Energy Access Explorer (EAE) to identify high-priority areas for energy interventions; and the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to estimate the technology and investment costs required to meet electrification targets. This data-driven approach allowed officials to assess the county’s energy needs and pinpoint solutions — oftentimes finding that clean energy was the best option.

The energy plan prioritizes five opportunities for clean energy development:

Solar panels on a farm in Makueni County, Kenya. Solar can power irrigation, refrigerators and other technologies that help farmers boost their yields and increase incomes. Photo by Makueni County government. 1) Electrifying Unserved and Under-served Households

While access to electricity in Kenya has improved tremendously over the last two decades, only 25% of households in Makueni are connected to power. The priority for Makueni County’s government was to identify affordable options for supplying reliable power to the remaining households.

Domestic electrification in Makueni County (high demand scenario), from WRI's Energy Access Explorer platform. 

The plan sets targets to both expand the grid where appropriate, develop wind and hydro-electric power, and invest in solar mini grids and standalone solar home systems.

2) Powering Productive Use of Renewable Energy in Agriculture

Productive use of renewable energy (PURE) is a concept that leverages machines powered by renewable energy to expand energy access, boost economic growth, improve livelihoods and drive clean energy demand. PURE opportunities can stimulate increased consumption of electricity while enhancing the resilience of local populations, diversifying livelihoods and strengthening rural economies. But there’s a need for more granular data and analysis to demonstrate where these opportunities exist, particularly in the agricultural and other sectors. Makueni County’s new energy plan identifies seven priority value chains (including mung beans, maize, fruits, vegetables, fish, poultry, and dairy) where access to renewable energy would help stimulate energy consumption as well as economic growth.

3) Powering Hospitals with Solar

Access to affordable and reliable energy is central to the provision of quality healthcare. After all, ventilators, vaccine refrigerators, X-rays and other life-saving equipment cannot run without power. Yet while the Makueni County government has prioritized delivery of quality healthcare to all under its universal healthcare program, access to reliable and affordable electricity remains a major barrier.

The Energy Access Explorer platform pinpoints the location of 68 healthcare facilities in Makueni County that lack electricity. 

According to data from WRI’s Energy Access Explorer, 68 healthcare facilities from the county are not connected to the grid. Those that are connected incur high power costs, forcing the county government to spend huge amounts of its revenue on energy bills. To cut these costs, the county administration intends to collaborate with development partners and other investors to electrify the unconnected health care facilities, while investing in solar PV for those that are connected to the grid to reduce monthly energy bills. Analysis done to inform the plan showed that 73% of the county’s healthcare facilities can be electrified using stand-alone solar PV, while the remaining 27% will rely on grid power.

4) Expanding E-Mobility

Electric vehicles continue to gain momentum across Sub-Saharan African countries, including Kenya. Two and three-wheeler EVs can unlock rural mobility while decarbonizing transport. But the growth in EV adoption will increase demand for electricity, which could negatively affect grid stability. Proper planning for grid capacity and associated charging infrastructure is essential.

Makueni County’s energy plan identifies 20 feasible locations for setting up EV charging stations near major towns in the county, which can be connected to existing grid infrastructure.

5) Investment and Financing for a Clean Energy Future

The plan’s associated investment prospectus also identifies a pipeline of 12 PURE investable projects. It presents data and information on the size, location and possible financing options. It also estimates potential return on investment.

About $4.9 million will be required to unlock the opportunities in the agriculture and livelihood sectors, while another $1.2 million will need to be invested in expanding solar PV and energy storage for the county’s two main healthcare facilities. Innovative business models including blended finance mechanisms could help unlock this level of funding. Collaborations with Chinese investors through platforms like the China-Africa Partnership that WRI China and WRI Africa along with other partners are working on presents strategic opportunities. The county administration is also exploring avenues for public-private partnerships.

Next Steps to Power Kenya with Clean Energy 

While the new energy plan represents progress, much is still needed to implement it. In addition to the investment needed for PURE, about US$180 million will be needed for grid expansion across the county, benefitting about 800,000 people, while another US$179 million will be required for standalone solar PV systems targeting about 480,000 people. With support from UKPACT, WRI and Strathmore University are collaborating with the government of Makueni County to develop its energy policy, aimed at addressing policy and regulatory interventions to drive private sector participation in financing these opportunities, while guiding implementation of the energy plan.

Nationally, it will be important to scale this model to support the remaining sub-national governments in developing their own inclusive and integrated energy plans, informed by data. Collaboration between the national government, development partners, the private sector and other non-state actors will be key.

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• Energy Access Explorer

Authors Benson Ireri Victor T. Otieno Dimitrios Mentis Douglas Ronoh Anderson Ngowa Patrick Mwanzia H.E Hon. Mutula Kilonzo Jnr. CBS Eng. Sebastian Kyoni Eng. Naomi Nthambi Dr. Robina Abuya

E-Tricycles Are Powering a Recycling Revolution in Fortaleza, Brazil margaret.overh… Thu, 09/12/2024 - 10:00

Rafaela Aires's workday starts at 9:00 a.m., leading her down city streets that weave past the Atlantic shoreline and under concrete overpasses. Her collected bottles and cardboard boxes used to form heaps in a hand-drawn cart. Now, they rattle in her electric tricycle's cargo collection container as she zips down bike lanes.

"I feel like a warrior when I'm cycling," Aires laughs. "I'm really happy."

This hasn't always been the case. As a longtime catadora, or waste picker, in Fortaleza, Brazil, Aires remembers being looked down on and insulted for her work in the past. According to Musamara Pereira, another catadora, those working in the field have often been called "vulture" or "trash ripper." "People still didn't see [us] as professionals," she explained.

Yet, the work that Aires and Pereira do is essential.

Fortaleza has almost no citywide waste and recycling infrastructure. Like in many other Brazilian cities, an estimated 8,000 catadores — who are not formally employed by the city — form the backbone of its waste management system, providing most of its pickup services and selling collected recyclables to third parties to earn a living.

Hand-drawn carts like these are a familiar sight in Fortaleza, used by catadores to clean up the bulk of the city's waste. Photo by WRI

While the Brazilian government has made efforts to formalize the job in recent decades, most catadores face hazardous working conditions. Many pull up to 240 kilograms (530 pounds) of waste over the course of an 18-hour workday using hand-drawn carts. Salaries fluctuate based on how much each person collects and what they can sell it for, with the average Fortaleza waste picker often taking in just R$300 (about US$53) a month.

Meanwhile, trash accumulates. In 2023, a mere 6% of Fortaleza's recyclables ended up in processing facilities, leaving curbsides crammed with trash bags and cardboard boxes. "Sometimes, Fortaleza is not a clean city," admitted local restaurant owner Manu Duvale. "We live with trash as if it's nothing."

But for the last four years, Fortaleza's recycling problem — and the catadores' jobs — have been gradually improving. This is largely thanks to an innovative project called Re-Ciclo led by the Fortaleza government's Innovation Laboratory. And e-tricycle warriors like Aires are powering the change.

Reimagining Waste Management in Fortaleza

Fortaleza is far from the only city in Brazil lacking recycling infrastructure; over 90% of the country's waste ends up in landfills or dumps. This comes with a significant climate impact. In Fortaleza, unrecycled waste accounts for one-third of the city's planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions.

Re-Ciclo has worked to both uplift Fortaleza's catadores and expand its recycling infrastructure by redefining how the city manages waste. Central to this effort is a fleet of electric tricycles that has enabled the city's first-ever door-to-door collection service for recyclables while also strengthening its cycling system for all residents.

Re-Ciclo has reimagined what a catador can do.

Through the program, catadores now collect recyclables along specific routes through the city's neighborhoods, stopping by homes and apartments where residents have requested recycling pick-up. The recyclables are deposited at one of dozens of "Eco-Points" — a network of collection centers — where they are sorted and cleaned by waste pickers and then sold to recycling intermediaries. Re-Ciclo revamped this once ineffective collection infrastructure to support the program.

Recycling is a complex process involving multiple companies and associations. Here, waste pickers unload their recyclables at the Eco-Points, where they get prepared for further shipment. Photo by WRI

But Re-Ciclo is not just a waste collection program. It's also significantly improved the catadores' working conditions.

In most cases, better recycling has translated to more efficient work and more stable pay for Re-Ciclo workers. Raquel Silva, president of the Moura Brasil Waste Pickers Association, explained that she can now visit 10-16 collection sites per trip before returning to the Eco-Points in the same time it used to take her to visit 3-4 sites.

The program also collects data along pick-up routes, enabling catadores to track the volume of their collected recyclables and drive better salary negotiations. Re-Ciclo encourages unaffiliated waste pickers to join associations to drive more collective bargaining power.

Thanks to a more stable income and reliable collection monitoring, most workers now receive significantly higher salaries — up to 500% above previous levels. "Today, the waste collector who is part of Re-Ciclo earns his daily wage for the goals achieved," Pereira said. "[The waste collector] has transportation vouchers, has meal vouchers, and is now valued."

Re-Ciclo bikes outfitted with GPS systems and rechargeable batteries allow waste pickers to travel further, faster. Photo by WRI How Waste Workers Helped Design a Better Recycling System

Re-Ciclo began in earnest during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Fortaleza's government sought ways to support catadores who were suddenly unable to work. The city's Innovation Laboratory (LABIFOR) aimed to develop a solution that could address workers' needs while simultaneously tackling the city's waste problems. Catadores themselves were central to this process.

"For us, it was fundamental in this policy that the waste picker associations were part of the design of the program from the very beginning," explained Luiz Alberto Sabóia, President of CITINOVA, Fortaleza's Science, Technology and Innovation Foundation department, which houses LABIFOR. The group conducted focus sessions with all 16 waste picker associations across the city. According to Nirlania Diógenes, manager of Re-Ciclo, these initial discussions informed the city's decisions to establish the Eco-Points and provide catadores with e-tricycles.

The Innovation Lab continued to work closely with waste picker associations throughout the project's prototyping phases to solicit feedback and pinpoint areas for improvement. Multiple rounds of testing enabled the team to create e-tricycles that were lighter, easier to maneuver and more responsive to catadores' needs. The new e-tricycles can carry up to 150 kilograms (330 pounds) of recyclables, covering greater distances at twice the speed of traditional hand-drawn carts.

In a profession marked by high risk of injury and health hazards, Re-Ciclo provided catadores with personal protective equipment and brightly colored uniforms to increase their visibility. LABIFOR conducted training workshops to familiarize workers with new collection routines, support their transition to e-tricycles and train them to interact with clients.

Pictured from left to right are Raquel Silva, president of the Moura Brasil Waste Pickers Association; Luiz Alberto Sabóia, president of CITINOVA; and Nirlania Diógenes, manager of Re-Ciclo. Close collaboration between CITINOVA and the waste picker associations ensured that Re-Ciclo responsive to the catadores' needs. Photo by WRI

Rolling out the program required citywide outreach. To promote residential recycling, the team unveiled a web-based collection app so that users could sign up for door-to-door service along Re-Ciclo's main routes. Meanwhile, those living outside the service routes could drop off their waste directly at Eco-Points. This expanded access to recycling and helped increase the ease and convenience of collection, providing an easily scalable solution. The city also conducted education campaigns for residents and business owners throughout the design phase.

"I think anyone who becomes aware of and understands [Re-Ciclo] can't help but appreciate it," Duvale, the restaurant manager, said. "When [trash] is well taken care of, it's a source of income; it's raw material."

Renewed Pride in Recycling Is Inspiring a Greener Fortaleza

Fortaleza has started to take notice. Re-Ciclo's e-tricycles transported 380 tons of recyclables during their first full year of operations and have helped recycle 980 tons of waste since 2022. Thanks to this project and other incentives by the city government, Fortaleza has since seen a 541% growth in its recycling program.

"It is a watershed in Fortaleza in terms of selective waste collection," Sabóia said.

Fortaleza residents along Re-Ciclo's recycling collection routes can use its mobile app to easily request door-to-door recycling pickup. Photo by WRI

Hannah Mendes, a Fortaleza resident, remembers the trash generated during the city's Carnival celebrations and has been surprised to see cleaned-up beaches on the morning after the festivities. "Everything is already collected, and everything is clean. It's hugely satisfying to see."

Among catadores, the project has created a sense of pride. Many cited the uniforms and e-tricycles as sources of increased recognition from the community. Residents have reached out to catadores to learn more about the project or to sign up. Some even ask to take selfies with Re-Ciclo workers. And work in the recycling warehouses no longer invites the judgment that it used to. "You go to a warehouse or an association and see many young people working... and there's no more prejudice," Borges, a long-time waste picker, explained.

Making the Leap from Pilot to Practice

As it continues to expand, Re-Ciclo is looking to play an increasing role in Fortaleza's long-term sustainability. The project is now part of Maís Fortaleza, a city program that runs a suite of circular economy initiatives and is now accommodating e-waste disposal at Eco-Points. The city government has set its sights on achieving recycling for 50% of all waste over the coming eight years.

According to restaurant owner Manu Duvale, using Re-Ciclo's service has helped his restaurant come closer to sustainable operation. Photo by WRI

Moving forward, LABIFOR plans to grow its fleet from 20 to 150 e-tricycles by December 2024, employing more than 200 catadores and serving all 12 of the city's districts. Ongoing work with the Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative (TUMI), which provided funding for the initial pilot program, aims to optimize routes through data mapping and spatial analysis. And the team hopes to outfit future e-tricycles with solar panels that will charge them during collection.

Re-Ciclo may ultimately offer a blueprint for future recycling efforts across the country. Brazil's 2022 National Solid Waste Plan has targeted 48% of all waste to reach recycling centers by 2040, though it faces steep challenges doing so.

Shifting attitudes won't happen overnight, said Élcio Batista, Fortaleza's vice mayor — though residents are beginning to "realize how much they can contribute." Connecting people to recycling disposal is an important start. According to Sabóia, the program has since inspired neighboring cities, such as Sobral, to follow suit.

For catadores, Re-Ciclo is a daily reminder of their importance.

"We are recycling, and I can help many people without job opportunities," Silva reflected, "I am saving the environment — it's a mix of many things. For me, it is a joy to be part of Re-Ciclo and a collector."

The 2023-2024 WRI Ross Center Prize for Cities celebrates projects and initiatives building momentum for climate-ready communities. From five finalists, one grand prize winner will be announced Sept. 25.

 

Editor's note: This piece formerly stated that Fortaleza's Eco-Points were established under the Re-Ciclo program and has been corrected to reflect that they were modified under the program.

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What Happens When Extreme Heat and Air Pollution Collide wil.thomas@wri.org Tue, 09/10/2024 - 10:21

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On July 22, the world experienced its hottest day in recorded history. The global average temperature reached 17.2 degrees C (62.9 degrees F), prompting U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres to issue a global call to action on extreme heat.

The problem of extreme heat, however, doesn’t exist in a vacuum: When temperatures rise, so too can air pollution levels, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), an in-depth assessment of the state of climate change authored and reviewed by hundreds of scientists and experts, recognized last year.

Mexico City is one of many urban areas around the globe where this interplay can take hold. Last spring, record temperatures and windless conditions led to a three-day severe pollution alert. The city also activated emergency measures such as limiting traffic to help bring down particulate emissions and ozone levels. It was a dark reminder of the past, harkening back to the 1990s when Mexico City was named the world’s most polluted city. Walking around outside during that time had the same impact as smoking two packs of cigarettes a day.

Since then, Mexico City has taken bold steps to clean the air by introducing measures like prioritizing clean fuels and hastening the shift to electric buses. As a result, the city’s residents are now living healthier and longer lives — on average, three years longer than in previous decades.

But Mexico City faces a new, dangerous threat: longer and more frequent heat waves supercharging its air pollution. And as extreme heat continues to worsen, especially in cities where it is exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, Mexico City and other cities around the world must develop integrated strategies to tackle these dual, correlated challenges.

The Connection Between Heat and Air Pollution

Throughout the thousands of pages of the IPCC’s AR6 report, the authors detailed some of the most alarming climate impacts, including the deeply intertwined relationship between global warming and poor air quality.

Put simply, air pollution levels spike when temperatures rise. This happens in a variety of ways. High temperatures can lead to more frequent droughts and more intense wildfires, both of which increase particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5). Wildfires also release large amounts of black carbon, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Heat also accelerates biological processes responsible for the degradation of organic waste and wastewater, releasing both air pollutants and greenhouse gases into the air.

Certain pollutants, however, actually feed on the heat. Ground-level (or tropospheric) ozone, an often overlooked but deadly pollutant, forms when VOCs, including methane, and NOx emissions from vehicles, industrial facilities, waste and agricultural burning and other sources chemically react through exposure to sunlight. Warmer temperatures accelerate these reactions, leading to increased ozone production, which manifests as a harmful haze. As a result, during hotter, dryer, less windy months — and especially during heat waves — ground-level ozone can reach dangerous levels in cities.

Countries around the world are seeing the correlation between high temperatures and high ozone levels. During a heat wave that spread across Europe in July 2022, the ground-level ozone in Portugal, Spain and Italy all registered at least double the 100 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m³) deemed safe by the World Health Organization. That same summer, China also experienced elevated ozone levels during a heat wave. And a recent study made a broader connection between high ozone and high heat in China, based on ozone levels observed between 2014 and 2019.

Increased ground-level ozone can pose serious health risks, particularly to vulnerable populations like children, pregnant people and older adults. Ground-level ozone pollution also threatens critical ecosystems like forests by weakening their ability to respond to stresses like drought, cold and disease. It also damages crop production by reducing plants’ ability to turn sunlight into growth and contributes to rising global temperatures by reducing the ability of trees to absorb carbon dioxide.

A Growing Threat to Public Health

On its own, air pollution can risk lives and livelihoods. But when coupled with extreme heat, the results can be even more deadly. The combination of high temperatures and stagnant air created during heat waves makes people more vulnerable to severe health impacts and urban infrastructure more susceptible to degradation.

Air pollution and heat exposure can each have short and long-term impacts on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems. Ozone alone accounted for roughly 490,000 deaths globally in 2021, and long-term exposure to ozone contributed to roughly 13% of all Constructive Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) deaths around the world that same year. And one study attributed air pollution, including PM2.5 and ground-level ozone, to more than 7,000 adverse health outcomes in children, 10,000 deaths and 5,000 hospitalizations a year in Jakarta, Indonesia. Extreme heat accounts for roughly 489,000 deaths globally per year. And, during Europe’s 2022 heat wave alone, more than 60,000 heat-related deaths occurred. More research is needed to understand how those deaths could have also been impacted by exposure to air pollutants.

Studies show that risks to individual health are heightened when air pollution and high temperatures are simultaneously at play. For instance, recent research found that high temperatures can exacerbate physiological responses to short-term ozone exposure. According to a 2022 study, mortality risk on days with combined exposure increases by an estimated 21%. Another study on the effect of heat and ozone on respiratory hospitalizations in California found that lower-income neighborhoods and areas with high unemployment rates were disproportionately susceptible to the combined impacts of heat and ozone.

Children and the elderly are the most vulnerable populations facing this deadly combination. Air pollution is currently the second leading risk factor of death for children under 5 years old. Meanwhile, those aged 50 and older suffer at a higher rate from pre-existing conditions such as COPD, diabetes, stroke and heart disease, and are especially susceptible to high levels of tropospheric (ground-level) ozone. Low- and middle-income countries are also disproportionately affected by ozone, as they account for a significant piece of the total number of deaths attributed to ozone since 2010. As air quality worsens and our planet continues to get hotter, the world needs to take urgent action to prevent, and to treat the most vulnerable from, these impacts.

Solutions to a Deadly Combination

Working to weaken the relationship between heat and air quality is critical for reducing the effects of these combined threats. Tackling the emissions that warm our planet and reducing the pollutants that contaminate our air is critical for addressing the root causes of each problem.  But leaders can also take action to more immediately protect residents and build climate resilience.

Health preparedness

As we adjust to rising temperatures, it is vital that our medical systems are able to keep up with the growing number of people affected by heat and air pollution. During heat waves and high pollution events, cities must be prepared to handle an increased intake of people seeking medical attention, especially those with pre-existing conditions who are more vulnerable to respiratory and cardiovascular issues during extreme heat events. By increasing access to medical emergency rooms and live-saving medications, cities can strengthen emergency response capacity and bolster public health infrastructure. Bangkok’s air pollution clinic, dedicated solely to treating patients suffering from air pollution-related illnesses and educating the public about air quality safety, is a potential model for other cities to follow. The more capacity that public health systems have to treat patients suffering from air pollution and heat-related illnesses, the more lives will be saved.

Better air quality forecasting

Early warning systems for extreme weather are critical tools for preparing people for dangerous conditions, as Guterres noted in his call to action on extreme heat.  But access to information about air quality is also essential for navigating the spikes in pollution levels that accompany heat waves. Integrating air pollution forecasting into early warning systems is especially dire in low- and middle-income countries that often lack the data, capabilities and satellite modeling needed to generate their own air quality forecasts. WRI and the NASA Global Modelling and Assimilation Office have collaborated to give cities in lower-income countries access to air quality forecasts through a tool called  CanAIRy Alert. GEOS-CF bias-corrected forecasts are currently available for 121 sites in 21 cities around the world, helping decision-makers better predict increases in air pollution, identify solutions and prepare public health responses.

Example of the CanAIRy Alert forecast tool. It provides information for ozone, nitrogen oxide, PM2.5, temperature and precipitation. Integrated climate and clean air solutions

The impacts of air pollution and extreme heat are intertwined, so their solutions should also be connected. Reducing emissions — by mandating strict standards for industries, improving public transport and encouraging non-motorized transport, for example — can clean the air while helping curb the temperature increases associated with climate change. Ending dependency on fossil fuels and investing in renewable energy sources are also imperative and can help reduce both temperatures and air pollution levels.

In the short term, cities should develop emergency response plans to hazardous heat and air quality, which could include limiting cars allowed on the roads and shutting down high-polluting factories to temporarily reduce emissions during high pollution events. Cities can increase their longer-term resilience to both heat and air pollution through enhanced urban planning that could feature open ventilation corridors to more effectively disperse air pollution. They can also build green infrastructure like urban tree cover, which can interrupt the urban heat island effect by cooling cities while also absorbing air pollutants.

A Red Zone Alert flag is raised on a summer day in the Washington, D.C., metro area. The warning is an indicator of poor air quality, when it is considered unhealthy to breathe for extended periods. Photo by Michael Ventura/Alamy Stock Photo. Building Momentum

Guterres’ call to action in response to the record-breaking July 2024 heat wave is a welcome, and essential, step forward.  As part of this mobilization, countries around the world must also consider the role that air pollution is playing. The combination of extreme heat and poor air quality is especially harmful to human health and our ecosystems, and the world must take swift action on both.

A better understanding of the interplay between high temperatures and air pollution is critical for implementing immediate and long-term solutions to the problem. Deeper knowledge about the connection, and more widespread and equitable access to data and tools, can lead to more effective preparations. Solutions to this dual threat should also consider the susceptibilities and vulnerabilities of different populations, like disproportionate health impacts, illnesses and hospitalizations. The next step is building global momentum — and taking collective action to maintain it.

Nina Saaty contributed to this article.

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Greening the Jukskei River: Scaling Nature-based Solutions for Climate Resilience in Johannesburg, South Africa margaret.overh… Mon, 09/09/2024 - 12:14

Alexandra Township is a 20-square-block enclave in the heart of Johannesburg, South Africa's northern suburbs. Established in 1912, the township was built to house 750,000 residents. Today, it is home to more than 1.2 million. Despite efforts to increase waste management, this surge in population growth has left the neighborhood facing high levels of pollution.

The Jukskei River that runs through Alexandra Township is especially polluted with trash, which has made the river — and the houses built on its banks — highly prone to flooding. "The situation calls for urgent, collective action to restore the environment and protect our community from these escalating dangers," says Semadi Manganye, a local resident and co-founder of the Alexandra Water Warriors.

Manganye's group has recently become involved in a new initiative, SUNCASA, which stands for "Scaling Urban Nature-based Solutions for Climate Adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa." Funded through Canada's Partnering for Climate Initiative and led by WRI and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), SUNCASA aims to help people living in high-flood-risk areas of three major African cities build resilience through nature-based solutions. Working with the City of Johannesburg and other local partners — including the Johannesburg Inner City Partnership (JICP), Johannesburg City Parks and Zoo (JCPZ), Water for the Future (WFTF) Zutari and GenderCC — SUNCASA aims to introduce more nature into the overcrowded Alexandra Township, helping to reduce flood risks and climate-related impacts like urban heat while also expanding residents' access to green spaces.

On August 22, 2024, WRI, IISD, and local project partners hosted the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, on a visit to a SUNCASA project site along the banks of the Jukskei River. Accompanied by Cllr Jack Sekwaila, a Member of the Mayoral Committee for Environment & Infrastructure Services, and Floyd Brink, Johannesburg's City Manager, Minister Joly spoke with local community members and SUNCASA's implementing partners, who shared their visions for improved climate-resilience in Johannesburg as well as the latest developments under the SUNCASA project.

Minister Joly speaking with one of SUNCASA's local partners during her visit to Alexandra. Photo by Jenna Echakowitz/SUNCASA Building Green Spaces and Urban Resilience in Johannesburg

Developing and maintaining green spaces in townships in Johannesburg (and South Africa more broadly) has long been a challenge. Townships have a high degree of population density, poor infrastructure and limited access to public services, in part due to Apartheid-era planning which has made integrating and accessing green infrastructure more difficult for residents of historically underserved neighborhoods.

SUNCASA is working to build accessible green open spaces in low-income communities like Alexandra by integrating more nature into the built environment. Through consultations with local communities, the project will increase tree cover in Alexandra and the inner city by planting trees near low-income households and expanding tree cover in public spaces. SUNCASA is also supporting other "green infrastructure" solutions in the city, including removing invasive species from the Jukskei River Catchment and rehabilitating vulnerable riverbanks with indigenous species.

Together, these nature-based solutions can improve biodiversity, mitigate flood risks and reduce urban heat island effect, all while helping to build more livable and climate-resilient neighborhoods for disadvantaged communities.

Minister Joly thanked all the partners and communities working on the SUNCASA project, saying "Your leadership, your ideas and hard work are deeply impressive and sure to make the project an impactful one."

The Alexandra Water Warriors, a local partner to the SUNCASA project, welcome Minister Joly to Alexandra, showing her the work done to clean up the banks of the Jukskei River. Photo by Jenna Echakowitz/SUNCASA Integrating Nature and Social Equity into Climate Policy

Along with helping implement on-the-ground projects, SUNCASA is working with the local government in Johannesburg to integrate nature-based solutions into its long-term priorities. The project will design and deliver training programs to local partners and authorities on gender-responsive nature-based solutions, helping to enhance governance frameworks on climate adaptation and natural resource management. SUNCASA will also provide municipal authorities with peer-learning opportunities, connecting decision-makers with a network of African policymakers working to improve climate and socioeconomic outcomes in their cities.

Gender equality and social inclusion are central pillars of the SUNCASA project. With limited access to resources and essential services, women and historically marginalized groups are disproportionately affected by climate shocks like flooding. But climate solutions are not always designed with these groups in mind, which means they may not receive an equal share of the benefits. Ignoring gender equality and social inclusion can also perpetuate existing biases and inequities in access, rights and opportunities for local communities.

SUNCASA aims to center the needs of vulnerable groups in all its activities by creating opportunities for women and under-represented groups to participate in planning, implementing and monitoring nature-based solutions. For example, the project works with city governments to open up participatory spaces for policy planning. Tapping into the expertise of partners like GenderCC, the project also works to strengthen the capacity of community-based organizations to partake in decision-making processes so their voices are adequately represented.

About the SUNCASA Initiative

SUNCASA is a multi-year initiative that aims to benefit people living in high-flood-risk areas across three major African cities by building their resilience to flooding and other water-related risks through gender-responsive nature-based solutions. Through $22 million in funding from Global Affairs Canada, the project is also being implemented in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia and Kigali, Rwanda by the International Institute for Sustainable Development and the World Resources Institute. Learn more about SUNCASA here.

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• Scaling Urban Nature-based Solutions for Climate Adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa

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Lessons from China’s Growing Adoption of Zero-emission Trucks shannon.paton@… Wed, 09/04/2024 - 11:49

Getting more zero-emission trucks on the road is an important transportation shift that is needed to reduce air pollution, protect public health and curb climate-harming emissions. But transforming the entire trucking industry is a challenging feat that will require the establishment of government policies with ambitious targets.

Some jurisdictions have already begun. For example, new EU legislation requires that by 2040, heavy-duty vehicles reduce carbon emissions by 90% compared to 2019 levels. California’s Advanced Clean Fleets regulation mandates all heavy-duty drayage trucks— which transport large containers or bulk goods to and from seaports, railyards and warehouses — be zero emissions by 2035.

However, zero-emission trucks — which include those powered by electric batteries and fuel-cells — are expensive with high upfront purchase costs and total costs of ownership making wider adoption difficult. There are also additional technological challenges, including the inability to travel long daily distances without needing to recharge, limited coverage of charging facilities and the heavy batteries means less goods can be carried.

Further, the trucking industry in many parts of the world is dominated by small and midsized businesses that are that struggling to switch to zero-emission trucks due to lack of capital and limited access to finance.

Addressing demand-side challenges, particularly for more cost-conscious and less technology-savvy businesses, is critical to promoting the adoption of more zero-emission trucks.

5 Lessons from China’s Efforts to Scale Zero-emission Trucks

In China, the Guangdong Province — particularly, the cities of Shenzhen and Foshan — has been successfully leading China’s zero-emission truck adoption for years. In 2023, sales of these trucks were over 28,000 — the largest among all Chinese provinces — as a result comprehensive government policies.

A recent WRI study on the economic feasibility of zero-emission trucks found that the cities of Shenzhen and Foshan accounted for 60% of the province’s zero-emission light-duty truck sales and 67% of zero-emission heavy-duty truck sales in 2023. The study also sheds light on five lessons that China and other countries should use to promote wider adoption of zero-emission trucks:

1)  Accelerate Adoption of Zero-Emission Trucks by Choosing Cost-Effective Use Cases

Trucks have many vehicle models and operate in many kinds of situations, spanning from light-duty trucks (1.5-4.495 tons) operating in cities for urban delivery, to large tractor trailers (42 to 49 tons) operating between cities for regional delivery. Depending on its purpose, there could be different kinds of adoption opportunities. Identifying the best use case that has near-term potential to start is critical.

The WRI study reveals that in 2022, Guangdong’s battery electric light-duty trucks in urban delivery and tractor trailers operating within seaports had not only met most operational requirements, but also reached total cost of ownership parity with diesel counterparts. However, other types of zero-emission trucks, such as tractor trailers and straight trucks used for regional delivery, still have too many challenges to make for an efficient transition. These include the inability to travel long distances without needing to recharge, having to carry less goods because the truck’s batteries are too heavy, as well as high total cost of ownership barriers.

Assuming zero-emission trucks can meet the distance requirements for all use cases, the WRI study demonstrated that by 2025, even without any policy incentives, the adoption of battery electric tractor trailers in port drayage are more likely to take off in Guangdong. By contrast, zero-emission trucks used for regional delivery are not expected to be adopted right away because their total cost of ownership parity relative to diesel trucks won’t be reached until 2028 or 2030. Currently, diesel trucks are more energy efficient than zero-emission trucks for highway driving. And for regional delivery, fuel-cell electric trucks are more cost competitive than those with electric batteries, if cheap green hydrogen is available.

A container ship terminal in Shenzhen, China. Zero-emission trucks operating in seaports have proven to be operationally and cost efficient. Photo by Nikada/iStock. 2) Pay Attention to Energy Prices for Cost Competitiveness

Finding cost effective solutions to encouraging more zero-emission truck purchases depends heavily on energy prices. If diesel prices were to drop, then zero-emission trucks won’t achieve parity with diesel trucks until a much later date.

Therefore, with lower diesel prices, removal of diesel subsidies, increased taxes on diesel prices or incentives on electricity and hydrogen will be needed to maintain the cost competitiveness of zero-emission trucks.

Further, the WRI study shows that in less time-sensitive situations, choosing battery-electric trucks with smaller batteries (which are much less expensive than trucks with large batteries), ensuring that charging facilities are sufficiently available and adjusting operation schedules to allow a battery electric truck more than one charge a day are important in reducing its total cost of ownership.

Taking port drayage for example, if fleet owners choose a battery-electric tractor trailer with a smaller battery pack of a 200 km (124 mile) range, the truck could perform a vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) rate of 200-400 km (124-249 miles) daily with two to three charges per day. Compared with a battery-electric tractor trailer with a large battery pack of a 400 km (249 mile) range, the battery electric truck with the 200 km (124 mile) range is cheaper to buy and would reach total cost ownership parity with diesel trucks several years earlier. This also makes tractor trailers in drayage use case the most promising use cases to be electrified now.

In this case, it is crucial to have:

• Broad availability of fast charging facilities, parking spaces and grid capacities to ensure chargers are available.
• Operation schedules that allow for sufficient charging time windows. For example, time charging with trucks’ waiting times at the port, during loading or unloading, or during break times of drivers.
• Sufficiently long daily VKTs, which translate to fewer cost gaps between battery electric trucks and diesel trucks.

3) Leasing Trucks Can Ease Up-front Purchase Prices

To ease costly up-front expenses of zero-emission trucks for fleet owners — particularly for small fleet owners — leasing has become a relatively common business model for zero-emission light-duty trucks, where fleet owners only pay a monthly lease or per-kilometer payment to use the vehicle.

However, risks are high for leasing zero-emission heavy-duty trucks, due to high upfront purchase costs, volatile transportation demands and limited creditworthiness of small freight carriers. Therefore, derisking measures are needed to scale the leasing models for heavy-duty trucks, such as unlocking green finance (through reduced interested rates and extended repayment terms) for zero-emission truck procurement; and providing tax benefits, flexible depreciation, or first loss guarantees for zero-emission truck leasing companies.

Although total cost of ownership parity with diesel trucks will be reached in most use cases by 2030, tremendous gaps in purchase costs remain. For example, by 2030, the purchase price of zero-emission trucks are still 53% to 322% higher than those of diesel trucks in all use cases.

The wide price gaps between zero-emission trucks and diesel trucks could be attributed to the low vehicle prices of diesel trucks in many countries. For example, in China, a 42-ton tractor with 200 km port drayage costs nearly twice the purchase price of its diesel counterpart.

An electric truck is on display during a 2018 exhibition in Shenzhen, China. To ease upfront purchase prices, fleet owners might consider leasing opportunities. Photo by Imaginechina Limited / Alamy Stock Photo. 4) Comprehensive Policies Are Most Effective for Quick Adoption

While there is no silver bullet for solving all the challenges zero-emission trucks face, comprehensive policy incentives are more effective at making zero-emission trucks cost effective at an earlier date than single measures.

WRI’s study found that by combining several policies, battery electric trucks can reach total cost of ownership parity with their diesel counterparts in most cases by model-year 2025. Fuel-cell electric trucks could reach parity before model-year 2028.

These policies include:

• Purchase Subsidies: Considering the high costs of fuel-cell electric trucks, purchase subsidies can help defray the costs.
• Tax Exemptions: Diesel trucks are subject to a 10% percent purchase tax and an ownership tax in China. WRI's study shows that tax exemptions are essential to bridging the cost gaps for all use cases.
• Energy Incentives: WRI's study shows that waiving demand charges for zero-emission truck charging, offering subsidies on energy prices and offering subsidies on the construction and operation of charging or refueling infrastructure are instrumental to reduce the costs of zero-emission trucks in many use cases.
• Road Access Privileges: To curb traffic congestion, trucks face stringent access restrictions in many cities. However, cities should consider relaxing restrictions for zero-emission trucks while maintaining the restrictions for diesel trucks.
• Reduce Expressway Road Tolls: To incentivize the adoption, some regions in China have offered reduced toll rates for zero-emission trucks. WRI’s study reveals that the policy is more influential for heavy-duty trucks that drive long distances along expressways.
• Increases of Maximum Authorized Weights for Zero-Emission Trucks: Heavy electric battery weight means zero-emission trucks might have to carry less goods. Providing zero-emission trucks with an additional 2-ton allowance compared to diesel trucks, could help with heavy goods transportation.
• Financial Cost Reductions: Loan interest rates vary among fleet operators and their creditworthiness, with small freight carriers facing higher annual interest rates. WRI's study shows if the interest rate drops, zero-emission trucks will become cost competitive in short mileage use cases.

However, apart from the proposed comprehensive policies, fleet owners would still need to take multiple factors into consideration. For example, shippers with ambitious climate goals would require the use of zero-emission trucks when sourcing transport services. Fleet owners who transport products of high profit margins such as alcohol and medicine would be more willing to adopt zero-emission trucks, as they see higher revenues.

5) Data Is Necessary to Make Policy and Business Decisions

As costs and technology of zero-emission trucks are expected to evolve over the next five to 10 years, it will be important to ensure those making policy and business investment decisions have access to data for both zero-emission trucks and existing diesel fleets.

Policymakers, for example, will need information on how real-world energy-efficiency of trucks would greatly affect zero-emission trucks’ total cost of ownership to determine when different use cases will become competitive.

For automakers, statistics on the daily mileage of existing truck fleets are critical to designing battery electric trucks, including the sizes of battery capacities, to meet operational requirements.

Also, for charging point operators, the truck traffic flows and stop locations of existing truck fleets are necessary to inform investments on charging points.

Therefore, it is important for governments to gather the operational statistics of existing diesel truck fleets and zero-emission trucks that can be shared among key stakeholders.

zero-emission-trucks.jpg Cities China Cities electric mobility net-zero emissions Urban Mobility transportation Type Commentary Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Electric Mobility

Authors Lulu Xue Ke Chen

ADVISORY: WRI Press Call Previewing Major Upcoming Milestones in Climate and Biodiversity casey.skeens@wri.org Wed, 09/04/2024 - 10:45

Audio recordings in Portuguese, Spanish, and French are available here. 

WASHINGTON (September 4, 2024) — Join World Resources Institute (WRI) on September 17 at 9 am EST/ 3 pm CET for a press call where experts will discuss key opportunities, challenges, and expected outcomes of major upcoming international summits, including the UN General Assembly/Climate Week NYC, COP16, COP29 and the G20 Leaders’ Summit.

The coming months will be critical for international efforts to address climate change and biodiversity loss in ways that benefit people, as well as for securing the finance needed to scale up countries’ action. On this call, WRI experts will outline how these important gatherings will shape the global agenda and their implications for people, nature and climate. They will also highlight how the outcomes of these gatherings can lay the groundwork for even more progress next year, leading up to COP30 in Brazil. 

Hot topics will include the stakes surrounding finance, including the new global finance goal at COP29; the need for countries to submit more ambitious climate targets (Nationally Determined Contributions) and nature plans (National Biodiversity Strategies); and how countries can better execute their existing commitments.  

Live translations will also be available in French, Spanish, and Portuguese. Following brief remarks, we will open the floor to questions. 

WHAT  

Press call to discuss expectations for major upcoming climate and biodiversity milestones, including the UN General Assembly/Climate Week NYC, COP16, COP29 and the G20 Leaders’ Summit. 

WHEN  

September 17, 2024 at 9 am EST/ 3 pm CET 

WHO  

• Ani Dasgupta, President & CEO, World Resources Institute
• Melanie Robinson, Global Climate Director, World Resources Institute
• Wanjira Mathai, Managing Director, Africa and Global Partnerships, World Resources Institute
• Cristiane Fontes (Krika), Executive Director, WRI Brasil
• Alison Cinnamond (moderator), Global Director for Strategic Communications

WHERE  
Please RSVP at this link for the Zoom webinar. Please note, this call is open to journalists only.  

If you have any questions, please reach out to Darla.vanHoorn@wri.org or Casey.Skeens@wri.org. 

International Climate Action biodiversity Type Advisory Exclude From Blog Feed? 0

A Community Program Is Transforming New York Schoolyards into Climate-Resilient Spaces shannon.paton@… Tue, 09/03/2024 - 11:09

In Brooklyn, one of New York City’s five boroughs, a new schoolyard features newly-planted native trees offering shade and bright playground equipment that sits adjacent to a track and turf field. Colorful murals celebrating the diversity of its Boreum Hill neighborhood surround the area. Seniors play chess while toddlers run past. It could easily be mistaken for a public park if it weren't for the school signage on the building next door.

The Pacific School (P.S. 38K) is one of more than 220 New York City public schools to transform its asphalt playground into a vibrant community space over the past two decades thanks to Trust for Public Land’s (TPL’s) Green Community Schoolyards. The program aims to create safe, accessible green places for New Yorkers — particularly those in disadvantaged neighborhoods — to gather close to their homes and connect with nature.

"I grew up in New York City, and I played on an asphalt playground,” recalls Mary Alice Lee, director at TPL. “It was adjacent to a park, and I would stare through the chain-link fence thinking it's not fair that we don't get to enjoy the playground equipment, the trees, the shade.”

The Trust for Public Land's Green Community Schoolyards program transforms public school spaces, like this playground at the Pacific School (P.S. 38K), for both students and the community to enjoy. Photo by WRI.

Lee has since dedicated her decades-long career to creating open spaces for New York City’s residents to enjoy the outdoors. “I think every child deserves a place to play in,” she says.

But TPL’s program offers much more than recreational and community-building opportunities. In an urban landscape otherwise dominated by concrete, green schoolyards are also critical climate-resilient spaces to help mitigate the increasingly extreme heat and flooding impacting New York City.

Green Community Schoolyards Address New York City’s Climate Needs

Nicknamed the “concrete jungle” in the mid-1900s, New York City’s dense urban landscapes of skyscrapers, concrete pavements and bustling streets are legendary. But with temperatures rising and the urban heat island effect exacerbating extreme heat in cities, New York faces a growing need for cool, shaded green spaces where all members of a neighborhood can spend recreational time, meet neighbors and form community connections.

New York City is home to only 2.2 public playgrounds per 10,000 residents, far below the average of 3.1 playgrounds in America’s 100 largest cities. The hundreds of green community schoolyards TPL has created seek to address that shortage. The program has succeeded in making playgrounds accessible to more than half of all New Yorkers, with 5 million residents now living within a 10-minute walk to a green space. TPL estimates that 220,000 children and community members have directly benefited from these new schoolyards.

An aerial view of the new P.S. 107X schoolyard showcases colorful play areas, sports courts and shaded seating. The space, transformed through the Trust for Public Land’s Green Community Schoolyards program, features permeable surfaces for effective water management. Photo by WRI.

“Overall, New York City is over 70% impervious,” explains Melissa Enoch, assistant commissioner of the New York City Bureau of Environmental Planning. “That means we've paved over a lot of our land. We've developed it. We're preventing stormwater from soaking into the ground like it used to before development.” 

Without enough soil and natural terrain to absorb water quicky, cities are at higher risk of flooding during extreme rain events. In 2012, for example, Hurricane Sandy devastated New York City with unprecedented flooding. In the span of 48 hours, the storm damaged 69,000 residential units, left hundreds of thousands without power and limited critical services like access to food, drinking water and healthcare for people across all five boroughs. As the city recovered and looked to make itself more resilient in the face of future extreme weather events, New York City’s Department of Environmental Protection joined TPL as a partner to ensure all future schoolyards would feature green infrastructure. 

The sites now serve as a network of both physical and social infrastructure, alleviating climate-related flood risk and urban heat island effects, while providing 5 million New Yorkers access to green space. 

Students and Neighbors Take Ownership of the Schoolyards

A unique and critical component of the Green Community Schoolyards initiative is that children are heavily involved in the design process. TPL introduced lessons on climate science and stormwater management into the school curriculum to educate students on the importance of water absorption, shade, native species and gardening, all critical components of a green schoolyard. Students then co-design their own schoolyards, facilitated by TPL and the landscape architecture firm, Studio HIP.

After learning about stormwater management, water flow, green spaces, and the urban heat island effect, students at I.S. 52M in New York City presented their own schoolyard designs. Each schoolyard is unique and gives students a sense of pride and ownership. Photo by WRI

“We had a lot of puddles in the yard when we had rainstorms,” Pascale Pradel, principal of P.S. 38K The Pacific School in Brooklyn, says. “[When] our kids got to see the construction process of the yard, they understood the importance of getting the water off the streets — and they felt like they were making a difference in our school environment.”

Participating in the design process challenges schoolchildren to think about needs beyond their own, like playground equipment for younger students and creating shaded bench spaces for caregivers. “It's a very heartwarming feeling,” reflects Alex, now an eighth-grade student. “I started this project when I was in sixth grade. But knowing that when I'm an adult there will still be kids who get to play around in this yard, it's a really cool idea.”

Students can swing, climb and play in the vibrant new schoolyard of New York's P.S. 107X, transformed into a colorful hub of activity by the Green Community Schoolyards program. Photo by WRI.

To ensure that schoolyards accommodate the diverse needs of the surrounding community after school hours, the program also collaborates with local senior groups, sports clubs, cultural clubs and others. By actively engaging communities and schoolchildren in the design of their own green spaces through civic action and advocacy, the program creates a sense of ownership and fosters long-term stewardship.

Keeping the Momentum Going

Witnessing the impact that TPL’s Green Community Schoolyards have had on students and broader communities, and the important benefits the spaces offer for climate resilience, it’s no wonder that the City of New York continues to champion the project. Several municipal agencies provide support, and the city has even included the project in its green infrastructure and formal flood mitigation plans.

TPL has created a sustainable public-private partnership that will ensure the program continues.  In this model, various public sources, such as the Mayor’s Office and the Department of Environmental Protection, provide capital funding, private donors cover programmatic costs, and TPL carries out project implementation together with communities. TPL also works with the New York City School Construction Authority to ensure projects are completed within the tenure of a student’s time at a school.

Students at Lab School 333 in NYC are cultivating plants and learning about how food is grown as part of the Green Community Schoolyards program. Photo by WRI.

The project’s relative simplicity — transforming empty asphalt lots into vibrant, green community spaces — makes this kind of intervention highly replicable and scalable. To date, similar projects have been completed in 15 other U.S. cities, including Philadelphia, Tacoma, Wash. and Oakland, Calif., with differing urban forms and densities, governance structures and climates (including desert climates). TPL is working on a federal program to set aside $150 million per year for nationwide schoolyard renovations based on the organization’s model of green design, student engagement and community stewardship.

For Lee, there is no greater reward than seeing the parks bustling with activity. “I love being able to be part of this project. It's so important to me that we're creating these green spaces for New Yorkers ... for people who might not have access to open space. They're able to sit in the shade, they're able to smell the flowers, and they're able to have fun and relax. They're also able to run around on the track or play soccer, and it's really wonderful to give that gift to the people of New York City.”

The 2023-2024 WRI Ross Center Prize for Cities celebrates projects and initiatives building momentum for climate-ready communities. From five finalists, one grand prize winner will be announced Sept. 25.

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• WRI Ross Center Prize for Cities

Authors Jen Shin Anna Kustar

How China and Africa Can Better Collaborate to Close Sub-Saharan Africa’s Energy Access Gap margaret.overh… Fri, 08/30/2024 - 15:10

The world is far off-track to meet its shared goal of providing affordable, reliable and sustainable energy to all people by 2030. Indeed, the number of people without electricity access increased in 2022 for the first time in a decade, rising from 675 million in 2021 to 685 million the next year. Eighty percent of people without electricity access — and 18 of the 20 countries with the biggest energy access deficits — are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Closing sub-Saharan Africa's massive energy access gap will require substantial investments; around $20 billion per year through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) estimate. And China could play a key role in filling that need.

China is not only Africa's largest bilateral trading partner and one of its biggest sources of foreign aid, but is also home to more than 80% of the world's renewable energy manufacturing. This makes the country uniquely well positioned to support clean energy expansion and access in sub-Saharan Africa. Indeed, it's already made strides in that direction. For example, China's government financed the construction of a utility-scale 50 megawatt (MW) solar plant in Kenya — the first of its kind in the country. Since opening in 2019, the plant has supplied an average of over 100,000 MWH of electricity annually, enough to support more than 350,000 people in 70,000 households.

While China has also supported some smaller, localized renewable energy efforts in sub-Saharan Africa, most of its investments in the region have focused on this kind of utility-scale installation. The challenge is that large, centralized projects often struggle to meet the dispersed, small-scale electricity needs of rural communities — particularly in remote areas where energy access is scarce. The mismatch between scattered electricity demand and centralized energy supply has made it difficult to increase access where it's needed most.

As China hosts the 2024 Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) this September, closing electricity access gaps in sub-Saharan Africa must be top of the agenda.

About the Africa Solar Belt Program

Recently, China committed to shift its overseas renewable energy investments toward smaller-scale initiatives that prioritize social benefits. Its first major program under this new strategy — and a key initiative of the Forum on Africa-China Cooperation — is the Africa Solar Belt.

China's Shift Toward International Clean Energy Investing

China has a long history of investing in energy infrastructure overseas. Its Belt and Road Initiative has invested over $1 trillion in infrastructure in more than 150 countries. In the past, these investments have been dominated by fossil fuel projects, particularly coal power. More recently, China has committed to 'green' its investments and development efforts in developing countries. For example, it established a "South-South Climate Cooperation Fund" in 2015, which seeks to help developing countries tackle climate change by supporting 10 pilot industrial parks, 100 climate mitigation and adaptation projects, and 1,000 climate-related capacity building activities ("10-100-1,000"). In 2021, China, along with 53 African countries and the African Union Commission (AUC), adopted the Declaration on China-Africa Cooperation on Combating Climate Change, stressing China's commitments to increase clean energy investment in Africa and to end overseas investment in new coal power projects.

The Africa Solar Belt Program, which is supported by research and policy analysis from WRI, aims to provide CNY 100 million (around US$14 million) in public funds between 2024 and 2027 to supply 50,000 African households with solar home systems. It also aims to support interventions that can improve livelihoods of local populations, which could potentially include things like powering schools or healthcare with solar. China has promoted this as a shift to "small and beautiful" projects rather than its traditional utility-scale investments.

But while the Africa Solar Belt and similar programs could significantly expand electricity access and improve people's welfare in sub-Saharan Africa, fulfilling this promise will require China and Africa to work together to overcome critical implementation challenges.

Key Challenges to Implementing the Africa Solar Belt Program

China and African partners have made some early progress in implementing the program. Since its launch in 2023, China has signed bilateral memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with two African countries: the Republic of Chad and the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe. Together, the three countries' governments have developed and adopted an implementation plan valued at 15 million CNY (around US$2.1 million), which aims to deliver 3,100 solar photovoltaic systems in São Tomé and Príncipe and 4,300 to local households in Chad by end of 2024.

However, past and ongoing energy access initiatives in the region — such as Lighting Africa, which is led by the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation, and Power Africa, a U.S.-led initiative — reveal numerous obstacles, risks and challenges. For example, financers and developers of decentralized renewable energy projects have had trouble identifying electricity demand at local, national and regional levels in Africa due to a lack of reliable data on viable opportunities. They have also found it difficult to develop sustainable and replicable business models for decentralized renewable energy projects that can attract private sector investment in the region at scale. Further, local work force in the region have faced challenges building the technical capacity needed to operate and maintain decentralized renewable energy over a multi-decade lifespan.

Solar panels cover the roof of a home in São Tomé and Príncipe, one of two African countries that have so far initiated solar power development plans with support from China under the Africa Solar Belt Program. Photo by Wirestock/iStock How China and Africa Can Work Together to Accelerate Solar Belt Implementation

China and Africa will need to work together closely to ensure China's clean energy investment is directed where it can have the most positive impact. China will host the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation from Sept. 4-Sept.6, 2024 to explore areas of economic collaboration, trade and investment, as well as development cooperation with Africa's political leadership. At this summit and through other fora, it is critical that leaders from both areas explore interventions that could unlock new clean energy investments under the Africa Solar Belt Program and similar initiatives.

Here are five key steps that Chinese and African governments can take to help scale up Africa Solar Belt implementation at this year's FOCAC summit and beyond:

1) Facilitate more public and private investment in clean energy initiatives

With China's shift away from investment in overseas coal-fired power plants, funding could be redirected to further deepen the country's investment in sub-Saharan Africa's distributed renewable energy sector. This will require a transition from traditional financing arrangements that worked in the context of utility-scale energy projects to new and innovative ones that respond to the needs of distributed renewable energy space.

Strategic collaborations between Chinese and Pan-African development finance institutions, philanthropic agencies, local banks, fund managers and research institutions will be critical to closing the region's funding gap. Governments can facilitate this by developing policies and regulations to attract international investment to the region and reduce risks for investors.

2) Incubate business opportunities between China and private sector actors in sub-Saharan Africa

Distributed renewable energy is primarily needed in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa, where local contexts, including terrain and cultural dynamics, will dictate how to successfully design and execute projects. Collaboration with local renewable energy companies is critical to implementing "small-and-beautiful" projects. Renewable energy associations from both areas — including the Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association (CREIA) and its African counterparts, like the Kenya Renewable Energy Association (KEREA) — could play a strategic role in facilitating collaboration among their members and supporting pilot projects in selected African countries. This is already being demonstrated through the Egypt Initiative on Developing Clean Energy to Improve Electricity Access in Africa launched at COP27.

Workers install solar panels on the rooftop of a motorcycle parts market in Nnewi, Nigeria. China's new clean energy investing strategy in Africa focuses on small-scale projects located within communities, rather than large-scale centralized power plants. Photo by Ijeh Williams 3) Encourage research, data analysis and knowledge exchange

Developers and investors alike need detailed information on the location and size of potential projects, the cost of such opportunities, their potential return on investment and more. Chinese renewable energy investors, their local counterparts and other investors must collaborate with local and international institutions that can provide reliable, granular data at both national and local levels to inform energy planning and investment decisions in the region. Tools like WRI's Energy Access Explorer can help fill such gaps by pinpointing areas with viable renewable energy demand, whether for household electrification or for powering productive uses, such as agriculture and healthcare electrification. The Ministry of Health in Zambia, for example, has been using the tool to determine priority locations for electrification of healthcare facilities in the country.

4) Nurture and facilitate platforms for policy dialogues

Continuous policy dialogues at national, regional and international levels will play a crucial role in deploying distributed renewable energy throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Governments and project developers must cooperate with civil society organizations, think tanks, development banks and other partners to incorporate voices from the region into policy and regulatory discussions. Partnerships with demand-side policy makers to sensitize investors and developers on investment opportunities, as well as strengthening south-south collaboration and engagements at strategic global platforms to influence regional and international policy discourse on renewable energy investment, will be very important.

5) Facilitate capacity building and technology transfer between China and sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa produces most of the critical minerals used in manufacturing renewable energy technologies globally. For example, Democratic Republic of Congo produces about 70% of the world's supply of cobalt, a mineral essential to building the lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles. These minerals are exported in cheap, raw form to China and other countries, while the final manufactured technologies are imported back to Africa at a much higher cost. By facilitating technology transfer to sub-Saharan Africa, China could help strengthen the region's manufacturing capacity and build local economies through job creation, while also contributing to GDP and reducing the cost of deploying renewable energy locally.

Chinese stakeholders, including policy makers, academic institutions, industrial associations and renewable energy manufacturers can help by: developing and executing training curriculum targeted at strengthening capacity of local workforces to meet the sector's growing demand; identifying requirements needed to facilitate transfer of renewable energy technology; and building and certifying local workforce capacity for renewable energy deployment, maintenance and operation.

rooftop-solar-nigeria.jpg Energy Africa Energy Energy Access climate finance renewable energy Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Energy Access and Equitable Development
• Energy Access Explorer

Authors Jing Song Benson Ireri

How the Climate Finance Puzzle Fits into the Global Financial System alicia.cypress… Fri, 08/30/2024 - 13:10

At the heart of the world’s economies is the global financial system — a set of institutions, markets and mechanisms that enable the flow of finance. But 21st century challenges, such as a global pandemic, international conflicts and especially the escalating impacts of climate change, are increasingly sending shocks through this system.

When the global financial system functions well, it provides the channels and rules that enable countries to interact with one another through trade, investment and other official transactions. In the past, it has also helped countries manage many economic, political and environmental shocks. But with pandemics, wars, debt and climate change all impacting the globe at once, questions about how to better stabilize the system are now appearing on agendas of international meetings.

The current Brazilian Presidency of the G20 includes the reform of global governance institutions as one of its three priorities, and many world leaders and thinkers are calling to reimagine the global financial system for modern times.

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in January 2023, "We can't build a future for our grandchildren with a system built for our grandparents."

This signals recognition that the global financial system is facing problems that require improved communication and cooperation. There’s an opportunity — and perhaps a necessity — for some of this reform to support better climate and nature outcomes.

How the global financial system relates to the climate and to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC), the entity tasked with coordinating the world’s response to climate change, is an ongoing debate. The economic and financial community and the climate community must tackle systemic issues together. Will they rise to the challenge?

Understanding the Role of the Global Financial System

Without the global financial system, money can’t flow between people and countries. Central banks, commercial banks, financial markets, regulatory bodies and international financial institutions essentially act as the roads, railroads or infrastructure on which financial instruments, such as money flows and resources (the vehicles), are invested or passed along.

To account for shocks in the system or respond at times of crisis, a global financial safety net (acting as airbags) was gradually created to ensure the system remains stable and predictable.

For example, if a country’s own reserves are not enough, other central banks can provide rapid liquidity, as the U.S. Federal Reserve did during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. And regional financial arrangements like the European Stability Mechanism or the Chiang Mai Initiative have been created to better pool resources. In addition, since 1944, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides financial capacity to stem crises occurring in member countries and prevent them from spilling over into other countries.

At the heart of the global financial system are the IMF and the World Bank Group. These two institutions are unique in that nearly all countries are represented through specific membership and governance arrangements (through various respective ministries or central banks).

When these institutions were created — at Bretton Woods 80 years ago after World War II — the global financial system wasn’t set in stone. As the post-war world took shape and new countries were established or gained independence, institutions, standard-setting bodies and other entities emerged; over time, adjustments were made to respond to new types of shocks and accommodate change. Today, climate change is frequently becoming one of those new shocks to which the financial system must be prepared to respond.

The IMF and World Bank were created during a gathering of global leaders in 1944 at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. Photo by travelview/iStock. What Is the Relationship between the Global Financial System and Climate Finance?

There’s no formal governance relationship between climate finance and the global financial system. But climate finance, whose principal objective is to address the impacts of climate change, must use the global financial system, which facilitates the flow of climate finance and allocates resources for climate-related activities. Whether it’s a loan made by a development bank to build a solar farm, or a hurricane-battered country seeking payment for damages through sovereign insurance, these “vehicles” travel through the global financial system.

In the context of the UNFCCC, the importance of international climate finance — which originates with one country and funds climate action in a different, developing country — was codified in the 2015 international Paris Agreement on climate change.

The Paris Agreement’s long-term finance goal is even broader and aims to align finance in all countries with global adaptation and mitigation goals. The Agreement also aims to facilitate the flow of finance to developing countries (via Articles 9.1 and 9.3).

The global financial system worked hard to make itself more resilient to unexpected shocks following the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s and the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis. During this time, the UNFCCC, for the most part, remained outside of these discussions on managing economic and financial shocks. But conversations began to converge between the two communities, allowing for the global financial system to start integrating some climate considerations.

For example, in 2015, the Financial Stability Board (set up by the G20 in 2009 after the Global Financial Crisis) started to detail how climate could undermine financial stability through sudden megastorms, long-term droughts and the retreat of fossil-based economies. It established the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) to study how climate risks impact finance (subsequently complemented by the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, TNFD).

Recommendations from those taskforces provide a concrete way to incorporate climate into investment decisions made within the global financial system: These disclosure regimes, which act like a streetlight system, illuminate paths of travel and point out risks or opportunities to investors along the way. Now, TCFD recommendations have been incorporated by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) that develops financial accounting standards, as the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) builds on these standards that are becoming globally accepted.

The pressure for policymakers in the economic and financial spheres to address the challenges posed by climate change isn’t just coming from white papers, disclosure frameworks and communiqués calling for action. Business leaders, policymakers and everyday people are recognizing that financial reforms are needed to allow societies to fully address these issues as they experience more severe and frequent climate impacts — which are disrupting and devastating lives and economies at national or regional scales — and as they see the need for investments which can support just transitions towards a climate- and nature-smart world.

Rows of solar panels soak up the sun in Cape Town, South Africa. Global financial reforms can help enable countries to raise and contribute more climate-related finance for expanding clean energy and other low-carbon solutions. Photo by Connect Images/Alamy Stock Photo Why More Dialogue Must Take Place between the Climate and Finance Communities

Key stakeholders from governments, the economic and financial community, and the climate community must tackle systemic issues together, because effective solutions require the resources, perspectives and expertise of all sides. These systemic issues are characterized by three themes:

1) Climate change exacerbates development challenges.

Delaying climate action or not investing in mitigation and adaptation now will only worsen climate impacts and, in turn, jeopardize development outcomes. Many institutions include climate considerations in macroeconomic projections and analysis used for delivering policy advice, including the IMF, World Bank Group and other development banks, and country finance ministries (at the G20, the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action and the V20). This helps the global financial system ensure its “roads and infrastructure” function well.

Addressing climate-related development challenges requires investments into policies or projects such as green industrialization, decarbonization pathways and resilient infrastructure, so that sustainable development follows. However, most countries face significant barriers, ranging from lacking incentives to high debt, to making these investments now.

2) Climate change negatively impacts economic and financial stability.

There is no shortage of evidence to support the economic and financial costs of climate-related disasters. For example, the agricultural sector is regularly impacted by heatwaves and massive floods, which all too frequently result in loss of life, damage the environment that supports livelihoods, and wipe out substantial portions of national income. Fearing these climate impacts, investors and insurers are more likely to seek out safer locations with lower climate risks. This strains the global financial safety net, which must be strengthened to handle exacerbating macroeconomic and financial instability and risks due to climate change.

3) The sum of all currently available climate finance — public, private, domestic and international — is inadequate to meet Paris Agreement goals.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released data in May 2024 indicating that the $100 billion annual goal for climate finance was reached (albeit behind schedule), but that in the years ahead, climate finance needs will increase many times over. There simply isn’t enough finance flowing to support countries’ transition and adaptation needs, especially for developing countries who were not present to shape the building blocks of the global financial system.

While it has become certain through studies and experience that climate change could threaten the stability of the global financial system, and that greater flows of international climate finance are needed, it remains less clear what climate-related reforms are required from the global financial system. As mentioned above, the 2015 Paris Agreement did set out a long-term goal to “align” all financial flows with what would be needed to achieve global mitigation and adaptation targets; it did not, however, say exactly how this could be achieved. The first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement that concluded in 2023 revealed the need to significantly ratchet up “climate ambition,” backed by finance for developing countries. This has triggered a mounting clamor from multiple stakeholders.

Calls for Global Financial System Reform to Enhance Climate Action

From the G7/G20, to IMF and World Bank annual meetings, to the UNFCCC climate summits, debates are ongoing about the role of different actors, institutions, financing instruments and various climate funds to better understand how the global financial system and climate action interact. Some of the common calls for reform include:

1) “Multilateral development banks need to step up”

The role of multilateral development banks was called out for the first time in a decision from the 2022 UN climate summit (COP27). One example includes a call for different levels of development banks (multilateral, regional, complementing national and subnational) to support country investments and transitions to build resilient economies and channel climate finance where it is needed.

In Washington, D.C., a sign advertising annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Recent years have seen increasing calls for international development banks like the World Bank to play a more active role in financing and supporting climate action. Photo by Kiyoshi Tanno/iStock 2) “More and better climate finance”

Access to climate finance across sectors and countries is a recurring issue. In 2023, the Global Stocktake notably called on different actors in the global financial system to support climate action, reiterating the importance of reforms in the multilateral financial architecture with the aim to provide more and better climate finance. It recognized the need for more climate finance, especially through grants, non-debt and concessional instruments. The use of innovative finance instruments, carbon markets and new forms of taxation are also cited as ways to pursue Paris Agreement objectives, as well as the recognition of the role of the private sector, policies, regulations and enabling conditions to reach the scale of investment needed.

3) “Understand and manage risks better”

The Global Stocktake also called for a better assessment of climate-related financial risks by governments, central banks, commercial banks and institutional investors. Investors need clarity, such that financing instruments are put to their best use, and that the “streetlight system” effectively supports mitigating risks and aligning investments to the Paris Agreement goals. To provide a clear streetlight system that illuminates climate risks, the global financial system can build on the network of existing institutions, both by creating and adjusting the standards and rules in a way that integrates climate and nature and by showing how high-integrity carbon markets can provide new ways to invest. This would allow finance to better enable and support countries’ economic growth and development that is sustainable, low-carbon and resilient.

4) “Rewire the global financial system”

Further ideas have come from Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, in the so-called Bridgetown initiative. This highlighted ways that development and international finance, among other structural features of the global financial system, can change to include climate and better reflect the composition of the global financial system and realities of countries today — rather than when it was created.

Driving Action on Finance: How could reforms support finance for climate-vulnerable countries?

Climate finance is crucial for climate-vulnerable countries to transition to a low-emissions, climate-resilient future. Allied for Climate Transformation by 2025 (ACT2025), a coalition that amplifies the voices of climate-vulnerable countries, released a Call to Action for COP29 that explains how ambitious reforms could boost the quality and quantity of funding for climate-vulnerable developing countries.

Other diverse coalitions of stakeholders, including countries, private and non-governmental entities, have rallied behind calls for reform. The V20 (a grouping 68 climate-vulnerable nations) launched the Accra-to-Marrakech Agenda, featuring four major suggestions for “rewiring” the global financial system to work for climate and particularly for climate-vulnerable countries. It includes suggestions on debt, carbon financing and risk management.

In particular, dealing with debt accumulation effectively and with distress in a timely manner requires institutions such as the IMF, the G20 (Common Framework), traditional and non-traditional creditors, borrowing governments and the private sector to work together towards finding solutions.

Other venues where initiatives were launched include the Summit for a New Financing Pact in Paris (June 2023), the Africa Climate Summit (September 2023), the Emergency Coalition on Debt Sustainability and Climate (October 2023), and, most recently, the African Development Bank annual meetings (June 2024). During these high-level gatherings, calls for reforming the way unsustainable debt is handled have multiplied, including in the context of international climate talks. But all stakeholders have yet to define and agree upon faster solutions.

The functions of the system are decided collectively over time by decision-makers. Any reforms need to be perceived as legitimate and owned by all stakeholders, be it borrowers, or all types of donors and finance providers working together. The inherent trust and solidarity mechanisms that legitimize the international financial system are being put to the test. Systemic elements can change to support the transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy.

Several of these themes have been echoed at the margins of recent UNFCCC negotiations at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh and COP28 in Dubai, in an attempt to outline principles for global climate finance. These discussions highlight the connective tissue between climate and the global financial system, such as the provision of international climate finance for developing countries; the better management of climate risk; or investing into resilience while countries are debt constrained.

Ultimately, while the UNFCCC climate regime cannot singlehandedly drive changes in the global financial system, it matters that these conversations between the climate community and the economic and financial community are happening and that shared goals and effective means of achieving them are agreed.

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• Allied for Climate Transformation By 2025 (ACT2025)
• Urban Heat and Passive Cooling

Authors Valerie Laxton Preety Bhandari

Bipartisan IMPACT Act 2.0 Fills Gaps in Concrete and Asphalt Climate Legislation shannon.paton@… Tue, 08/27/2024 - 11:01

Demand for construction materials — such as cement, concrete and asphalt — is increasing as the U.S. builds and repairs infrastructure. Concrete is already the most widely used human-made resource in the world. Concrete and asphalt together account for roughly 1.7% of U.S. total greenhouse gas emissions, the equivalent of emissions from around 25 million gasoline-powered cars on the road each year.

In the last few years, the U.S. has made significant investments in decarbonizing the industrial sector — including construction materials — through the implementation of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL). In addition, federal and state buy clean and other policies have started catalyzing markets for low-carbon products like concrete and steel. Funded by the BIL and IRA, the Industrial Demonstrations Program, which awarded key industrial sectors $6.3 billion to develop deep decarbonization technologies, is the largest federal investment in industrial decarbonization so far and highlights the scale of efforts in the U.S.

Yet more needs to be done to scale up the development and deployment of decarbonization technologies and ramp up market demand for decarbonized industrial products. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that 60% of the technologies needed to decarbonize the industrial sector by 2050 are not yet available and are still in the research, development and demonstration (RD&D) pipeline. And while the recent investments in decarbonization technologies are commendable, they provide only a fraction of the funding needed to meet net-zero targets. For example, low-carbon commercial scale projects currently under development will only be able to supply 5% of the demand for cement in the U.S. in the next 5 to 10 years.

Alongside increased RD&D grants, demand-side policies are a key lever for scaling low-carbon technologies. This lever, which aims to create a market for low-carbon products through policies like green procurement and advance market commitments, allows companies to derisk investing in decarbonization technologies by guaranteeing future sale of products as long as they meet certain low-emissions benchmarks.

The IMPACT Act 2.0 bill (H.R. 9136) — introduced by Max Miller (R-Ohio) and Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) in the U.S. House of Representatives — would bolster the manufacturing of low-emissions cement, concrete and asphalt binder and mixes to propel U.S. industrial decarbonization.

The bill has three main sections that establish:

• Federal Highway Administration performance-based grants of $15 million to facilitate the purchase of low-emissions concrete and asphalt goods.
• Advance Purchase Commitments authority for the Department of Transportation to coordinate state and local agencies to purchase low-emissions goods three or more years into the future.
• An interagency task force on innovation for improving durability, reducing costs, supporting continuous emissions reduction, increasing employment and workforce training.

The bill complements the bipartisan IMPACT Act introduced in the House of Representatives in March 2024 by Miller and Foushee, and parallels the Concrete and Asphalt Innovation Act (CAIA) introduced in the U.S. Senate in December 2023 by Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). CAIA would boost RD&D and create a first-of-a-kind program in the U.S. for government agencies to enter into contractual agreements for the future purchase of low-carbon concrete and asphalt.

Why This Legislation Is Important

IMPACT Act 2.0  would pave the way for American industries to innovate the foundational materials of our construction industry — concrete and asphalt — toward lowering emissions while strengthening our workforce and reducing costs.

This legislation, along with the IMPACT Act and the Concrete and Asphalt Innovation Act, are a legislative package that will incentivize and support both producers and consumers of low-emission, American-made construction materials while benefiting the communities in which they are produced.

The bipartisan introduction of this bill by Reps. Miller and Foushee is an important step toward  building a green, innovative and robust American industry.

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• U.S. Climate
• Industrial Decarbonization

Authors Ankita Gangotra Carrie Dellesky Angela Anderson

Canada Develops Legal Framework to Prioritize Net-Zero Implementation shannon.paton@… Thu, 08/22/2024 - 16:46

Canada’s national climate governance system — including its political leadership, inclusive planning and accountability mechanisms — is poised to support rapid GHG emission reductions towards its net-zero goal. Although Canada’s first LT-LEDS (2016) did not include a net-zero target, the development of this initial long-term climate strategy initiated a shift from short-term to long-term climate planning, which thereafter spurred several climate governance interventions. In 2019, the Canadian Parliament declared a national climate emergency and in 2020, during the Speech from the Throne, the government committed to legislate a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Later that year, a bill was introduced to advance this commitment. The same year, Canada also released its Strengthened Climate Plan, which outlines synergistic opportunities for achieving climate goals while promoting economic prosperity.

According to an interview with an analyst in Canada’s Department of Environment and Climate Change, the net zero bill was debated and amended before ultimately passing in 2021. Now law, the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act establishes a legally binding process for the government to set GHG emission reduction targets and communicate plans to achieve each target. The 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (2022) was the first of such plans established under the new law and outlines a sector-by-sector path for Canada to reach its emissions reduction target of 40 to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. In developing the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the Canadian government heard public feedback on the plan from over 30,000 Canadians.  

The plan emphasizes that pricing carbon pollution is key to achieving the 2030 target and, despite legal challenge, the country’s Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act (2018), was upheld by Canada’s Supreme court in 2021, upholding its validity. To support government accountability, the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act requires regular reporting on the country’s progress toward its greenhouse gas emissions targets, with the first progress report submitted in 2023, a second due in 2025 and a third in 2027. In 2025, the report must contain an assessment of progress toward the 2030 target and include the next national GHG emissions reduction target for the 2035 milestone year.

The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act also establishes a Net Zero Advisory Body in legislation, which will provide independent advice on the GHG emissions targets and emission reduction plans, including measures and sectoral strategies that the Government of Canada could implement. The Advisory Body is required to prepare an annual report stating its advice and the results of its engagement activities. When preparing its advice and its report, the advisory body must consider a range of factors including the best available scientific information and Indigenous knowledge. The Ministers must release a public response to the Net-Zero Advisory Body Report within 120 days after receiving it. The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act requires a comprehensive review five years after its coming into force. 

Ultimately, Canada’s net-zero-aligned governance mechanisms have already served to focus national planning and policymaking on driving decarbonization. In the years ahead, we can evaluate the extent to which this framework drives progress toward the near- and long-term climate targets that have been established.

 

Realizing Net-Zero Emissions: Good Practices in Countries

This case study is part of a working paper outlining a "Framework for Net-Zero Climate Action," emphasizing outcomes, enabling action areas and actions crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. It showcases real-world examples of countries implementing these strategies, offering valuable insights for others.

Read More

 

Read More Net-Zero Case Studies in this Series:

• Sweden’s Early Action to Legally Enshrine its Net-zero Target May Bolster Against Political Shifts
• Uruguay’s Wind Development Program Attracted Private Investment to Transform the Power Sector
• Singapore Mandates Corporate Climate Risk Disclosure to Mobilize Private Climate Finance
• The Kingdom of Tonga Developed its LT-LEDS Through a Consensus-Based Stakeholder Engagement Process
• Costa Rica’s Pioneering Net-zero Implementation Plan Attracts Investment, Withstands Political Changes
• Chile’s New Governance Structures Are Streamlining Net-zero Implementation
• South Africa Establishes an Inclusive Process Toward a Just Transition, with Broad Stakeholder Engagement
• A Sustained Portfolio of Policies Have Transformed Denmark’s Power Sector
• France Shapes Budget to Increase Net-zero-aligned Public Finance

net-zero-snapshots-canada.jpg Climate Canada Climate net-zero emissions long-term strategies long-term strategy related case study GHG emissions Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Long-Term Climate Strategies
• National Climate Action
• Tracking Climate Progress

Authors Cynthia Elliott Clea Schumer Rebecca Gasper Katie Ross Neelam Singh

Uruguay’s Wind Development Program Attracted Private Investment to Transform the Power Sector shannon.paton@… Thu, 08/22/2024 - 16:25

Uruguay illustrates how targeted sectoral policy —  in this case, regulatory reforms and government-funded demonstrations of renewable technologies —  can catalyze private investment and lead to transformative change. While the country’s power mix has historically been dominated by hydropower, its lack of reserves left the system highly vulnerable. A series of severe droughts in the early 2000s forced the government to rely more heavily on oil imports and electricity imports, increasing costs and carbon dioxide emissions. During particularly severe drought years, oil comprised 30%-40% of the power mix.

In 2007, the government launched the Uruguay Wind Energy Program to reduce reliance on costly fossil fuel imports using a Global Environment Facility grant of $1 million coupled with $6 million from its own budget. This program kickstarted wind development through the following measures:

• Regulatory reforms, including a competitive reverse-auction system for large-scale development and a feed-in tariff for small-scale projects. Independent power producers could feed into grid at standardized prices and the state-owned utility was required to buy all wind power generated. Higher prices were guaranteed for projects generating electricity before 2015.
• Workforce training on wind integration, including development of a demonstration wind farm and a university curriculum, which created new job opportunities in Uruguay and regionally.
• Outreach to developers and investors led by utilities to address risk perception and share knowledge.
• Stakeholder dialogues for regional cooperation, which ultimately facilitated market linkages among Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina. Uruguay began exporting excess wind power to Argentina in 2016.

As a result, wind development exceeded the government’s initial expectations, with wind energy generation near 5,000 gigawatt hours and generating about 40% of the country’s electricity. Building on its history of meaningful dialogue with labor groups, the government worked closely with unions during the closure of power plants and used measures including early retirement together with workforce training in renewable industries to manage the transition.  

More recently, the government began implementing similar policies to ramp up solar power, which now comprises 3% of the power mix. The government is also exploring ramping up offshore wind largely to produce green hydrogen as a key component of plans to meet its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.

 

Realizing Net-Zero Emissions: Good Practices in Countries

This case study is part of a working paper outlining a "Framework for Net-Zero Climate Action," emphasizing outcomes, enabling action areas and actions crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. It showcases real-world examples of countries implementing these strategies, offering valuable insights for others.

Read More

 

Read More Net-Zero Case Studies in this Series:

• Sweden’s Early Action to Legally Enshrine its Net-zero Target May Bolster Against Political Shifts
• Canada Develops Legal Framework to Prioritize Net-Zero Implementation
• Singapore Mandates Corporate Climate Risk Disclosure to Mobilize Private Climate Finance
• The Kingdom of Tonga Developed its LT-LEDS Through a Consensus-Based Stakeholder Engagement Process
• Costa Rica’s Pioneering Net-zero Implementation Plan Attracts Investment, Withstands Political Changes
• Chile’s New Governance Structures Are Streamlining Net-zero Implementation
• South Africa Establishes an Inclusive Process Toward a Just Transition, with Broad Stakeholder Engagement
• A Sustained Portfolio of Policies Have Transformed Denmark’s Power Sector
• France Shapes Budget to Increase Net-zero-aligned Public Finance

uruguay-wind-turbines-green-fields-net-zero.jpg Climate Uruguay Climate net-zero emissions long-term strategies long-term strategy related case study GHG emissions Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Long-Term Climate Strategies
• National Climate Action
• Tracking Climate Progress

Authors Cynthia Elliott Clea Schumer Rebecca Gasper Katie Ross Neelam Singh

Sweden’s Early Action to Legally Enshrine its Net-Zero Target May Bolster Against Political Shifts shannon.paton@… Thu, 08/22/2024 - 15:59

Sweden was among the first countries to adopt a net-zero target as part of its climate policy framework adopted by Parliament in 2017. Sweden’s target, as further elaborated in the country’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), illustrates several good practice foundational decisions: clearly defined scope and wide sectoral coverage, covering all gases and sectors excluding international aviation and maritime transport; limitations around the use of offsets and carbon removals to no more than 15% of the target; interim targets for 2020, 2030 and 2040; and development of a robust implementation plan with sector-specific detail and modeling. The 2020 implementation plan built on existing European Union and Swedish policy instruments including the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, energy and carbon taxes, the Fossil Free Sweden  government initiative which supports industry developing sector-specific decarbonization roadmaps, and others. It then identified new sector-specific actions needed to achieve net zero.

After setting this target and developing a robust implementation plan, Sweden took a step further to enshrine the net-zero target into law through Sweden’s Climate Act, which requires the government to publish a climate action plan every four years assessing progress towards interim and longer-term targets and putting new actions into place as necessary (Figure 1). The government must also include annual climate reporting in its budget bill and ensure alignment between budgets and climate policy. Moreover, the Climate Act established an independent Climate Policy Council, comprised of scientists and policy experts external to government, to evaluate the government’s progress each year.

Figure 1

While it is still early to determine how Sweden’s foundational decisions have impacted GHG emissions, Sweden’s emissions have been on the decline since the 1990s, largely due to progressive climate policies driving reduced use of fossil fuels and improved efficiency in the power sector, as well as transport and industry. Sweden easily met its 2020 interim target, and, notably, was on track to achieve this prior to the pandemic. However, its record GHG emissions decline from 2019 to 2020 was likely due to the pandemic, as preliminary estimates indicate that emissions increased from 2020 to 2021. In 2022, emissions once again began to decline, reaching a minimum since accounting began. More time is needed to evaluate the extent to which Sweden’s net-zero implementation plan and legislation will drive continued and deep decarbonization.

Arguably, one the most important benefits of developing a strong implementation plan and legally requiring aspects of the plan is to ensure that net-zero implementation proceeds, even if political priorities shift. Stakeholders have raised questions about whether Sweden’s new government will continue Sweden’s historic progressive action on climate change after early decisions including the removal of a dedicated Ministry for Climate and Environment and a move to lower fossil fuel prices by reducing the biofuels requirement to the EU minimum. The next Climate Action Plan —which was published by the country’s new government in December 2023 — has been criticized for deprioritizing near-term action. It will be important to monitor the long-term durability of the climate policy framework that has been built in light of these shifting priorities in the years to come.

 

Realizing Net-Zero Emissions: Good Practices in Countries

This case study is part of a working paper outlining a "Framework for Net-Zero Climate Action," emphasizing outcomes, enabling action areas and actions crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. It showcases real-world examples of countries implementing these strategies, offering valuable insights for others.

Read More

 

Read More Net-Zero Case Studies in this Series:

• Uruguay’s Wind Development Program Attracted Private Investment to Transform the Power Sector
• Canada Develops Legal Framework to Prioritize Net-Zero Implementation
• Singapore Mandates Corporate Climate Risk Disclosure to Mobilize Private Climate Finance
• The Kingdom of Tonga Developed its LT-LEDS Through a Consensus-Based Stakeholder Engagement Process
• Costa Rica’s Pioneering Net-zero Implementation Plan Attracts Investment, Withstands Political Changes
• Chile’s New Governance Structures Are Streamlining Net-zero Implementation
• South Africa Establishes an Inclusive Process Toward a Just Transition, with Broad Stakeholder Engagement
• A Sustained Portfolio of Policies Have Transformed Denmark’s Power Sector
• France Shapes Budget to Increase Net-zero-aligned Public Finance

net-zero-snapshots-sweden.jpg Climate Sweden Climate net-zero emissions long-term strategies long-term strategy related case study GHG emissions Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Long-Term Climate Strategies
• National Climate Action
• Tracking Climate Progress

Authors Cynthia Elliott Clea Schumer Rebecca Gasper Katie Ross Neelam Singh

The Kingdom of Tonga Developed its LT-LEDS Through a Consensus-Based Stakeholder Engagement Process shannon.paton@… Thu, 08/22/2024 - 14:17

Tonga’s long-term strategy puts forward a common vision of a low-emission, resilient and autonomous future reached through an extensive stakeholder engagement process supported by technical analysis. The strategy describes sectoral pathways and identifies policy actions consistent with near-term NDC commitments as well as sustainable development and gender equality goals. Tonga’s approach to its long-term strategy development illustrates how strategic participatory stakeholder processes can be used to build implementation plans for a resilient, equitable low carbon transition.

With support from Relative Creative, Climateworks and Global Green Growth Institute, the Government of Tonga developed a stakeholder engagement plan based on dialogue and consensus. Local facilitators helped identify and assemble a cross-sectoral stakeholder group representing government, industry and civil society, while a series of workshops were held to: sketch future visions; iterate and identify needed actions; and converge on a shared vision, sector pathways and priority actions. After each workshop, a report was sent back to the group for feedback, allowing issues to be identified for discussion in following workshops. The final strategy was then validated with the steering committee and stakeholder group to ensure it truly reflected the consensus reached through the dialogues. With limited access to reliable emissions data, the workshops used a qualitative process of divergent thinking (open-ended, creative) to develop possible visions and a convergent process (analytical, strategic) to refine them. Dialogues were conducted mostly in Tongan with local facilitators and incorporated culturally relevant metaphors and locally applicable contexts. Local facilitators helped identify and assemble a cross-sectoral stakeholder group representing government, industry and civil society, while a series of workshops were held to: sketch future visions; iterate and identify needed actions; and converge on a shared vision, sector pathways and priority actions. After each workshop, a report was sent back to the group for feedback, allowing issues to be identified for discussion in following workshops. The final strategy was then validated with the steering committee and stakeholder group to ensure it truly reflected the consensus reached through the dialogues. With limited access to reliable emissions data, the workshops used a qualitative process of divergent thinking (open-ended, creative) to develop possible visions and a convergent process (analytical, strategic) to refine them. Dialogues were conducted mostly in Tongan with local facilitators and incorporated culturally relevant metaphors and locally applicable contexts.

The stakeholder process undertaken here is a model that the Tongan government now considers the gold standard to be used in other policy development. It is also one from which other countries planning for net-zero implementation can learn.

 

Realizing Net-Zero Emissions: Good Practices in Countries

This case study is part of a working paper outlining a "Framework for Net-Zero Climate Action," emphasizing outcomes, enabling action areas and actions crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. It showcases real-world examples of countries implementing these strategies, offering valuable insights for others.

Read More

 

Read More Net-Zero Case Studies in this Series:

• Sweden’s Early Action to Legally Enshrine its Net-zero Target May Bolster Against Political Shifts
• Uruguay’s Wind Development Program Attracted Private Investment to Transform the Power Sector
• Canada Develops Legal Framework to Prioritize Net-Zero Implementation
• Singapore Mandates Corporate Climate Risk Disclosure to Mobilize Private Climate Finance
• Costa Rica’s Pioneering Net-zero Implementation Plan Attracts Investment, Withstands Political Changes
• Chile’s New Governance Structures Are Streamlining Net-zero Implementation
• South Africa Establishes an Inclusive Process Toward a Just Transition, with Broad Stakeholder Engagement
• A Sustained Portfolio of Policies Have Transformed Denmark’s Power Sector
• France Shapes Budget to Increase Net-zero-aligned Public Finance

tufui-faletau-tonga.jpg Climate Oceania Climate net-zero emissions long-term strategies long-term strategy related case study GHG emissions Type Project Update Exclude From Blog Feed? 0 Projects

• Long-Term Climate Strategies
• National Climate Action
• Tracking Climate Progress

Authors Cynthia Elliott Clea Schumer Rebecca Gasper Katie Ross Neelam Singh